The 9,000 yuan/ton mark is becoming a psychological watershed for the polyester DTY market. On July 3, 2026, public quotes for the same specification (150D/48F semi-dull low-elastic AA grade) showed Rongsheng Petrochemical at 9,150 yuan/ton and Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber at 9,000 yuan/ton—a 150 yuan/ton gap that stands out in the off-season.
Signals Behind the Quote Divergence
This price gap is not merely a matter of corporate pricing strategy. Rongsheng, as a leader in the integrated PTA-polyester chain, typically sets a benchmark. Zhejiang Juxing, based in Shaoxing and closer to downstream weaving clusters, offers more flexible pricing. The regional disparity between Hangzhou and Shaoxing reflects differing expectations along the supply chain: upstream giants try to support margins by holding prices, while factories near end-markets already feel order contraction.
Current DTY prices are near a one-year low. In the first half of 2026, the polyester chain experienced a broad decline from raw material PTA to filament yarns. DTY, with higher processing depth, lagged in the downturn but is now accelerating its fall. Industry data shows DTY inventory days have risen steadily since Q2, with sales-to-production ratios at some small and medium polyester plants dropping below 70%.
Supply Chain Transmission: From Polyester Plants to Weaving Mills
150D/48F is one of the most widely used DTY specifications, applied in woven fabrics, home textiles, and some apparel linings. The current 9,000 yuan/ton level means raw material costs for weaving mills have fallen about 12%-15% from early 2026. For cost-sensitive small and medium mills, this should be a boon—but reality is more complex.
On one hand, lower raw material costs haven't directly translated into higher weaving margins. Grey fabric prices have weakened in tandem, and end-user orders are mostly short-term and small-lot, discouraging mills from building inventory. On the other hand, rapid DTY price fluctuations have intensified buyer caution. Mills adopt a "buy-as-needed" strategy, further slowing polyester plant shipments and creating a negative cycle: the more prices fall, the less buyers purchase; the less they purchase, the more prices fall.
Feedback from industrial clusters shows that operating rates in traditional weaving hubs like Shaoxing and Xiaoshan have slightly declined, with some mills proactively cutting output to manage raw material volatility and order shortfalls. In Shengze and Changxing, water-jet loom capacity remains active, but margins have been squeezed to near breakeven.
Foreign Trade Perspective: Cost Decline vs. Exchange Rate Game
For foreign trade buyers of polyester DTY, the current price environment presents a double-edged sword. At the domestic price of 9,000 yuan/ton, the FOB export cost is approximately $1,160-$1,180 per ton (including processing fees and short-haul logistics). This represents an 8%-10% decline from the same period in 2025, theoretically enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese DTY in Southeast Asian and South Asian markets.
However, challenges are equally evident. The RMB against the USD experienced a modest appreciation in H1 2026, partially offsetting the cost advantage from lower raw material prices. Additionally, polyester capacity expansions in Turkey and India continue to squeeze China's DTY market share in the Middle East and Africa. Relying solely on price cuts to sustain export volumes is not a sustainable strategy.