On July 3, 2026, Kaishi Group's polyester DTY (150D/48F, AA grade) was quoted at 9,300 yuan per ton, a drop of about 0.2% from the previous day's benchmark of 9,318.75 yuan. This price not only marks a recent low but also reflects a deeper adjustment in the chemical fiber industry under supply-demand mismatch.
Dual Pressure from Inventory and Demand
Looking at the quotation sequence, polyester DTY prices have been declining since July 1. Kaishi Group's quote of 9,300 yuan per ton serves as a bellwether. Notably, Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted the same specification at only 9,000 yuan per ton on the same day, a spread of 300 yuan, indicating diverging inventory pressures and pricing strategies among different companies.
This price decline is not an isolated event. China Customs data shows that polyester filament yarn export growth slowed in the first half of 2026, while domestic weaving mill operating rates hovered at 65%-70%, below last year's levels. This suggests downstream buyers are not only price-sensitive but are actively reducing raw material inventories to cope with terminal order uncertainty.
On the cost side, PTA and MEG prices have weakened simultaneously, opening room for DTY price declines. But the deeper reason lies in the concentrated release of new capacity from Q4 2025 to early 2026, leading to market oversupply. Industry data shows that DTY social inventory had climbed to over 35 days by end-June, well above the 25-day safety line.
Industrial Belt Reactions and Upstream-Downstream Transmission
Weaving mills in major DTY consumption areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan have begun adjusting procurement rhythms. Some factories have reduced their raw material inventory cycles from 7 days to 3 days, adopting a "buy-as-needed" strategy. This cautious sentiment is transmitting upstream: Kaishi Group's current quote has a validity period of only 7 days, half of the previous 15 days, reflecting suppliers' lack of confidence in the outlook.
The 150D/48F semi-dull low-elastic yarn is a mainstream raw material for home textiles and apparel fabrics. Price fluctuations of this category directly impact greige fabric costs. According to industry experience, a 100 yuan per ton drop in DTY reduces fabric costs by about 1.5 fen per meter. For a weaving mill producing 2 million meters per month, this means a monthly savings of 30,000 yuan in raw material costs—but this profit margin is being eroded by end-customer price pressure.
Foreign trade is also feeling the chill. Southeast Asian textile mills, with lower energy and labor costs, are snatching low-to-mid-end orders from China. In the first five months of 2026, China's DTY exports to Vietnam and Bangladesh fell 8% year-on-year, while Vietnam's own polyester capacity is expanding rapidly. This "raw material export turned into finished product import" substitution is intensifying competition in the domestic market.
Outlook and Strategies
In the short term, DTY prices may continue to oscillate in the 9,000-9,300 yuan per ton range. If polyester plants jointly cut production to support prices, stabilization is possible; but if end demand remains weak, a break below 9,000 yuan cannot be ruled out. Medium-term, about 1.5 million tons of new polyester filament capacity is planned for the second half of 2026, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
For buyers, current prices are near the cash cost lines of some producers, limiting further downside. It is advisable to build 2-3 weeks of safety stock in batches below 9,300 yuan to avoid chasing prices on rebounds. At the same time, watch quotes from second-tier suppliers like Juxing Chemical Fiber to optimize procurement costs using price spreads.
For foreign trade companies, be wary of anti-dumping risks triggered by low-price orders. The EU launched an anti-dumping investigation into Chinese polyester filament yarn in 2025, and continued price declines could accelerate the final ruling. It is recommended to include price adjustment clauses in export contracts and actively explore emerging markets such as the Middle East and Africa to diversify trade risks.