The polyester POY market experienced a price easing at the start of July. Industry public quotes on July 3, 2026, showed Rongsheng Petrochemical listing its 150D/48F semi-dull POY at 8,200 CNY/ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted the same specification at 8,050 CNY/ton, retreating approximately 150-200 CNY/ton from the June average. This signal warrants attention from both upstream and downstream players—it is not merely a routine adjustment but could herald a repricing of the entire polyester chain in the third quarter.
Cost Logic Behind the Price Easing The direct driver of POY's decline comes from the raw material side. Since late June, PTA and MEG spot prices have weakened in tandem, with PTA falling from around 5,900 CNY/ton to below 5,700 CNY/ton and MEG sliding from 4,500 CNY/ton to 4,350 CNY/ton. Based on a POY consumption ratio of 0.86, the raw material cost alone has released about 120-140 CNY/ton of price reduction room. This implies that the current POY price cut is more a passive reaction to cost transmission than an active concession due to demand collapse.
Feedback from industrial clusters indicates that inventory levels at major POY production bases in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing, Zhejiang, are generally at 12-15 days, moderately high. Some small and medium-sized chemical fiber companies have already started stealth price cuts through "one-order-one-price" negotiations, and the public adjustments by leading companies like Rongsheng and Juxing essentially make these hidden discounts explicit. For downstream texturing mills and weaving factories, this makes procurement decisions more predictable.
Weaving Operating Rates Decline, Weak Demand Support Pressure from the demand side is equally significant. In early July, the comprehensive operating rate of water-jet looms in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region dropped to around 68%, down 5 percentage points from mid-June. Two main reasons account for this: first, the traditional off-season has arrived, with domestic orders entering a lull; second, some export orders have been disrupted by high ocean freight costs and exchange rate fluctuations, delaying delivery schedules. Weaving mills generally maintain a "buy-as-needed" strategy for raw materials, with low willingness to build inventories.
This dual squeeze of "falling costs + weak demand" makes it difficult for POY prices to find strong support in the short term. However, it is worth noting that the current price range of 8,050-8,200 CNY/ton is already below the full production cost line (approximately 8,200-8,300 CNY/ton) for most small and medium-sized POY mills. This means that if prices continue to fall, some capacity will likely initiate proactive production cuts or maintenance, thereby forming a bottom support.
Regional Price Differentials and Product Differentiation In this round of quotes, Rongsheng Petrochemical (Hangzhou) quoted 8,200 CNY/ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber (Shaoxing) quoted 8,050 CNY/ton, a difference of 150 CNY/ton. This reflects a more concentrated POY supply in the Shaoxing area, leading to greater competitive pressure. From a product perspective, the conventional 150D/48F specification has relatively higher price elasticity, while finer-denier varieties like 75D/36F, benefiting from sustained demand for imitation silk fabrics, have seen a narrower decline of about 50 CNY/ton.
For foreign trade companies, the decline in POY prices will directly reduce the cost of downstream DTY and fabric exports. Taking the example of processing one ton of POY into DTY for export to Southeast Asia, every 100 CNY/ton drop in raw material cost can correspondingly reduce the FOB export price by approximately 1-1.5 US cents per kilogram, helping to enhance the price competitiveness of Chinese chemical fiber products in the international market.