The price of polyester DTY is undergoing a mild but noteworthy decline. On July 3, Kaisi Group adjusted its quotation for 150D/48F semi-dull low-elastic DTY to 9,300 yuan/ton, narrowing by about 19 yuan from the previous day's industry benchmark of 9,318.75 yuan/ton. Although the single-day drop is less than 0.2%, combined with the continuous downward trajectory over the past week, the supply-demand balance is tilting in favor of buyers.
Supply-Demand Dynamics Behind the Price Softening
The 9,300 yuan/ton quotation is not an isolated data point. During the same period, Juxing Chemical quoted the same specification at 9,000 yuan/ton, creating a price gap of 300 yuan/ton, reflecting differentiated pricing strategies under inventory pressure and cash flow needs. Kaisi Group's quotation is valid for seven days, implying room for further adjustment in the short term.
Industry public data shows the DTY benchmark price has been slowly declining over the past week, from 9,318.75 yuan/ton on July 1, holding steady on July 2, and then dipping again on July 3. This gradual but continuous decline is usually not caused by a single company's action but rather the combined effect of upstream raw material cost easing and downstream demand weakness.
Transmission Effects on Downstream Weaving Mills
The 150D/48F specification is a common raw material for water-jet looms and warp knitting machines, widely used in production of imitation silk, linings, luggage fabrics, and other conventional textiles. The current price drop of about 19 yuan per ton translates to a cost reduction of 0.02-0.03 yuan per meter of fabric, seemingly negligible. However, when scaled to monthly procurement—a medium-sized weaving mill consumes 50-100 tons of DTY per month—monthly cost savings can reach nearly 1,000 yuan.
The key is that price decline expectations alter procurement behavior. When buyers anticipate lower future prices, they actively compress inventories and delay replenishment, further intensifying upstream suppliers' shipment pressure. This, in turn, forces polyester manufacturers to cut prices to clear inventory, forming a short-term negative feedback loop.
Differentiated Reactions in Regional Industrial Clusters
Chemical fiber clusters in Shaoxing and Xiaoshan are most sensitive to price signals. Kaisi Group, headquartered in Xiaoshan, often serves as a bellwether for surrounding small and medium enterprises. Currently, operating rates of weaving mills in the Xiaoshan-Shaoxing area remain around 70%, but new orders are primarily short-term and small-lot, narrowing tolerance for raw material prices.
In contrast, water-jet loom clusters in Shengze and Changxing, due to their product mix leaning toward conventional items, exhibit higher price elasticity for DTY. If the 9,300 yuan/ton threshold is effectively breached, it may trigger a broader wait-and-see stance on restocking.
Outlook and Operational Recommendations
In the short term, polyester DTY prices are likely to fluctuate narrowly within the 9,200-9,350 yuan/ton range. If international oil prices remain weak and the cost support from PTA and MEG weakens, the price center may further decline. However, given that prices are already near their year-to-date lows, and some polyester plants are implementing production cuts, the room for deep declines is limited.