The polyester POY market is approaching a critical psychological threshold. On July 3, 2026, Rongsheng Petrochemical and Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 8200 CNY/ton and 8050 CNY/ton respectively for semi-dull 150D/48F POY. The 150 CNY spread between the two quotes itself is a signal—market sentiment has clearly diverged.
What does this price level imply? Based on current feedstock costs of PTA and MEG, the cash processing spread for POY has narrowed to 700-800 CNY/ton, well below the industry-recognized breakeven line of 1000 CNY/ton. In other words, Juxing Chemical Fiber's quote at 8050 CNY/ton may already be in loss territory.
Dual Pressure from Capacity and Inventory
The immediate driver of this price weakness comes from the supply side. In the first half of 2026, China added approximately 1.2 million tons of new polyester POY capacity, concentrated in Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces. Rongsheng's base in Hangzhou Xiaoshan and Juxing's base in Shaoxing Keqiao are the epicenters of this new capacity release. The intensified supply has pushed regional POY inventory days from 12 days in April to around 18 days currently.
Under inventory pressure, producers are forced to cut prices to win orders. But the problem is that downstream demand has not expanded in tandem. Weaving mill operating rates have been declining since mid-June, with the comprehensive operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropping from 78% in May to 72%. End-user garment export orders have been lackluster due to exchange rate volatility and overseas inflation.
Regional Price Spread Reveals Industrial Belt Divergence
The 8200 CNY/ton quote from Rongsheng and the 8050 CNY/ton quote from Juxing are not just individual corporate decisions—they reflect cost structure differences between two industrial belts. The Xiaoshan area in Hangzhou is dominated by large integrated petrochemical-fiber companies with high raw material self-sufficiency and stronger risk resilience. In contrast, the Keqiao area in Shaoxing has a higher proportion of small and medium polyester enterprises that rely on external PTA purchases, making cost transmission more direct and price-cutting incentives stronger.
This divergence sends an important signal to downstream buyers. If the POY price in the Keqiao area breaks below 8000 CNY/ton first, it could trigger a follow-up decline in Xiaoshan, bringing the entire East China market average to a new price plateau.
Feedstock Support Is Loosening
The anchor price for POY—PTA—has also shown signs of weakening. In early July, spot PTA fell to around 5600 CNY/ton, down about 200 CNY/ton from mid-June. On the PX side, impacted by the pullback in international oil prices, the naphtha-PX spread narrowed to 280 USD/ton, below the breakeven level of 300 USD/ton, prompting some PX units to cut output. However, PTA social inventory remains high at 3.8 million tons, making a near-term rebound unlikely.
For MEG, port inventory in East China stays around 850,000 tons, with prices oscillating narrowly around 4200 CNY/ton. Overall, feedstock support for POY is weakening but not yet collapsing.
Downstream Game Theory and Opportunity
Weaving mills are currently adopting a "buy-as-needed" procurement strategy, keeping raw material inventory at a low 5-7 days. This extreme destocking behavior, however, also means that once prices hit a psychological floor, restocking demand could be unleashed instantly.
Historical experience shows that the 8000 CNY/ton level for POY 150D/48F is an important transaction concentration zone. In the same period of 2025, the price oscillated in the 7800-8100 CNY/ton range, triggering a two-week concentrated restocking wave. The current price is already very close to this range. If quotes continue to decline next week, we may see weaving mills start phased bargain hunting.