Polyester DTY Prices Narrowly Fluctuate, Inventory Pressure Looms in Supply Chain

In early July, the polyester filament yarn market continued the steady trend from late June, but price signals revealed more caution. Kaisi Group, a representative polyester factory, quoted polyester DTY (150D/48F, AA grade, semi-dull low-elastic) at 9300 yuan/ton, down 18.75 yuan/ton from the benchmark of 9318.75 yuan/ton the previous day. This quotation is valid for only seven days, reflecting the company's uncertainty about the market outlook.

Price Range Narrows, Market Enters a Game Phase

From consecutive daily data, polyester DTY prices have slowly declined from 9318.75 yuan/ton on July 1 to 9300 yuan/ton on July 3. Although the decline is less than 0.2%, a downward trend has formed. Meanwhile, another chemical fiber company in the same region, Juxing Chemical Fiber, quoted its similar product at only 9000 yuan/ton, a spread of 300 yuan/ton. This is not simply a pricing strategy difference; it reflects the divergence among polyester factories with varying scales and cost control capabilities under current weak demand.

For draw-texturing mills and weaving enterprises in the midstream of the textile chain, the 9300 yuan/ton quotation means raw material procurement costs remain at a relatively high stage. The key question is whether downstream orders can support this price. Industry public data shows that loom operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have declined from the May peak, and end-user garment export orders have not shown the expected early stockpiling for the 'golden September and silver October'. Buyers generally adopt a 'buy-as-needed' strategy, showing a strong willingness to destock.

Cost Transmission Mechanism Stalls, Inventory Pressure Accumulates Upstream

The price trend of polyester DTY is essentially supported by raw material costs such as PTA and MEG, and driven by downstream demand. Currently, PTA prices are narrowly fluctuating under the influence of crude oil volatility, lacking a clear direction. More critically, the cost transmission chain from PTA to polyester chips to polyester filament yarn is not smooth. Polyester factories are torn between maintaining operating rates and protecting prices, with some already seeing an increase in hidden inventory.

Kaisi Group's quotation of 9300 yuan/ton is essentially a market confidence test. If trading volumes remain light in the following week, factories may resort to discounts or hidden price cuts. Juxing Chemical Fiber's quotation of 9000 yuan/ton is more like an early probe of the market bottom. This price divergence presents both opportunities and traps for small and medium-sized weaving enterprises: low-cost raw materials may briefly improve profits, but could also signal a broader price reduction wave.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Prioritize monitoring raw material inventory turnover days and avoid bulk hoarding due to small price fluctuations. The current 9300 yuan/ton level is not an absolute bottom; consider phased procurement plans, increasing purchases when prices fall into the 9000-9200 yuan/ton range. - Compare quotations from different polyester factories, especially smaller regional players that may offer greater bargaining space. However, verify product quality (e.g., AA grade standards) to avoid compromising quality for price advantages.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - When quoting for export orders, consider incorporating raw material cost fluctuation clauses into contracts, using a 'monthly average price plus processing fee' pricing model to hedge against short-term price volatility. - Monitor changes in demand for polyester DTY in Southeast Asian markets. If domestic prices continue to face downward pressure, consider increasing competitive quotations to markets like Vietnam and Bangladesh, leveraging the price advantage from domestic overcapacity to gain market share.