On July 3, 2026, the polyester DTY market witnessed a rare price divergence: for the same specification (150D/48F semi-dull low-elastic AA grade), Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 9,150 yuan/ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted only 9,000 yuan/ton, a spread of 150 yuan/ton. This divergence is not accidental but signals intensified game-playing across the industrial chain.
Triple Pressures Behind Price Divergence
On the raw material side, PTA prices have been in a correction since mid-June, with a cumulative decline of about 3.2%, directly weakening the cost support for polyester DTY. As the core raw material for polyester filament, PTA price fluctuations typically transmit to downstream DTY within one to two weeks. The current quote divergence reflects that some enterprises have already factored in lower raw material costs, while others are still digesting high-priced inventory.
Demand from downstream is equally gloomy. Weaving enterprise operating rates have slipped from 72% in May to 65% by late June, with water-jet loom utilization in Jiangsu and Zhejiang falling below 60%. Terminal garment export orders have shrunk about 8% year-on-year due to global inflation and destocking. This means that even as polyester DTY prices ease, downstream buyers remain cautious, adopting a 'buy-as-needed' strategy to avoid stockpiling.
Inventory data confirms this judgment. According to industry public data, as of late June, social inventory of polyester DTY had climbed to 28 days of usage, five days higher than the same period last year. The price difference between Rongsheng and Juxing essentially reflects the two companies' different trade-offs between inventory pressure and cash flow needs.
Overcapacity: An Unavoidable Hurdle
From 2025 to 2026, China added approximately 4 million tons of new polyester filament capacity, with DTY accounting for about 30%. These new capacities are concentrated mainly in Zhejiang and Jiangsu, overlapping heavily with the production bases of Rongsheng and Juxing. Capacity release has far outstripped demand growth, dragging the industry average operating rate from 78% in 2024 to 69% currently.
The direct consequence of overcapacity is price wars. Rongsheng, with its upstream PTA capacity and scale advantages, can tolerate lower profit margins, while small and medium-sized enterprises like Juxing, lacking raw material self-sufficiency, are forced to cut prices to maintain cash flow. This divergence is not an isolated case; small fiber plants in Shaoxing and Xiaoshan have begun reducing output or switching to differentiated products.
Differentiated products serve as a profit buffer. Varieties like cationic DTY, high-elastic yarn, and flame-retardant DTY, due to higher technical barriers and specific applications (e.g., home textiles, workwear), have seen much smaller price declines than conventional grades. For example, 150D cationic DTY is still quoted above 10,500 yuan/ton, a premium of about 16% over conventional products.
Q3 Outlook: Price Center Likely to Move Lower
Entering the traditional off-season of Q3, polyester DTY faces multiple headwinds: new PTA capacity (e.g., Ningbo Taichang's 1.2 million tons) will come online in August, keeping raw material pressure high; downstream weaving enterprises face peak electricity consumption and potential power rationing, which could further lower operating rates; and export orders are unlikely to recover in the short term.
Overall, the price center of polyester DTY is expected to shift to the 8,800-9,000 yuan/ton range during July-September, another 2%-3% decline from the current average. Rongsheng's quotes may become the industry 'ceiling,' while smaller firms' quotes will hover closer to cost lines.