The softening of polyester POY (150D/48F semi-dull) quotations is bringing the delicate balance of the chemical fiber chain into sharp relief. Data from July 3 shows Rongsheng Petrochemical quoting 8200 RMB/ton in Hangzhou, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber in Shaoxing quoted only 8050 RMB/ton, widening regional price gaps. Behind these figures lies an industry picture woven from raw material costs, capacity competition, and end-order dynamics.
Cost Side: The PTA Anchor Is Shifting Downward
The foundation of POY pricing lies in upstream PTA. Recently, spot PTA prices have been under pressure due to narrowing PX cracking margins and supply easing from new capacity. When cost support weakens, POY pricing space naturally compresses. Rongsheng, as an integrated leader, can maintain some profit at 8200 RMB/ton, but medium-sized polyester plants in Shaoxing have already cut prices, indicating differences in cost control and inventory pressure.
Notably, this regional price gap is not accidental. Hangzhou and Shaoxing have different polyester capacity densities. Shaoxing, as a weaving cluster, uses more POY for local demand, while Hangzhou has a wider logistics radius. When Shaoxing quotes lower than Hangzhou, it suggests local weavers may be squeezing purchase prices or polyester plants are proactively discounting to reduce inventory.
Supply Side: Dual Pressure from Capacity Release and Inventory
In the first half of 2026, China added approximately 1.5 million tons of polyester filament capacity, with POY accounting for over 40%. With demand not keeping pace, operating rates remain above 80%, but finished goods inventory days have risen from 12 days in April to 18 days currently. Inventory pressure is the direct driver of price softening.
Regionally, Zhejiang is the main POY production area, accounting for nearly 40% of national capacity. The quotation difference between Rongsheng and Juxing essentially reflects divergent inventory management strategies—large firms prefer stabilizing prices to protect margins, while smaller firms lean towards discounting to destock. This divergence becomes more pronounced in the off-season, signaling potential price war risks ahead.
Demand Side: Weaving Operating Rates Decline, Procurement Cautious
Feedback from the downstream weaving sector is more direct. Since June, water-jet loom operating rates in Jiangsu-Zhejiang have dropped from 85% to 78%, and circular knitting machine rates have fallen to 65%. With end garment orders entering a traditional off-season and foreign trade impacted by exchange rate volatility and shipping costs, weaving mills have significantly slowed raw material procurement.
- Routine just-in-time orders only maintain 7-10 days of inventory
- Speculative stocking demand has almost disappeared
- Some mills are cutting operating rates to alleviate finished goods inventory pressure
This "buy when rising, not when falling" mentality is amplified during downward price cycles. When POY quotations soften, downstream tends to wait for even lower prices, further exacerbating polyester plants' inventory turnover difficulties.
Price Outlook: Short-Term Pressure, Medium-Term Focus on Cost Support
Historically, July-August is a demand trough for polyester filament. Combined with weak PTA cost support, POY prices will likely oscillate in the 8000-8300 RMB/ton range. Two variables could change this trajectory: whether PTA plant maintenance is carried out intensively, and whether overseas orders start early in late August.
For industry participants, the core contradiction is not price levels but the smoothness of price transmission. Whether POY price cuts can effectively stimulate downstream restocking will determine the depth of this adjustment. If weaving mills remain on the sidelines, polyester plants may be forced to offer further concessions.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Current prices are at a cyclical low but not yet the bottom. Maintain 7-10 days of safety stock to avoid being forced to buy at a peak. - Monitor PTA futures trends. If PTA falls below 5800 RMB/ton, POY may follow suit, making it a good time to increase purchases. - Prioritize long-term contracts with suppliers in more competitive regions like Shaoxing and Xiaoshan to leverage regional price differences.
For Exporters - Overseas clients are highly sensitive to POY prices. Include a "price adjusts with raw material fluctuations" clause in quotations to lock in profit margins. - Watch for order recovery in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Bangladesh) from August onwards, and lock in exchange rates and arrange shipping early. - Use current low domestic quotes to sign forward delivery contracts with suppliers, securing raw material costs for the next 2-3 months.
Polyester POY price volatility is never an isolated event; it is a stress test for the entire chemical fiber chain from raw materials to end products. For industry practitioners, understanding the supply-demand logic behind quotations is far more important than chasing daily price moves.