China's wool textile industry is experiencing an unusual 'hot-cold mix': raw material imports surged 34% year-on-year, while export growth stalled at just 2.29%. Customs data for January-May 2026 reveals a chain where profits concentrate upstream while downstream demand remains tepid.
Raw Material Imports: Volume Flat, Prices Soar
The import surge was price-driven, not volume-driven. Wool and semi-processed wool imports totaled 130,000 tons, roughly flat from last year, but import value jumped 34.04% to $1.1 billion, implying an average price increase of about 30%. For domestic mills, input costs have already risen sharply, and the ability to pass these through depends on order strength.
Traditional suppliers Australia and New Zealand still dominate, but shares from South America and South Africa are slowly rising. The global wool sourcing structure is shifting from 'single dependency' to 'multi-source diversification'—a move for supply chain security that also reflects a widening gap in fine wool supply.
Exports: Emerging Markets Lead, Wool Top Shines
Wool top was the biggest contributor to the $4.35 billion export total. India and Turkey together imported over 10,000 tons of wool top, with growth rates of 77% and 54% respectively. This is no coincidence—South Asia and the Middle East have been aggressively expanding spinning capacity, creating rigid demand for semi-processed raw materials.
Notably, RMB-denominated export value fell 1% while USD-denominated value rose, meaning exchange rate fluctuations eroded book profits. For exporters quoting FOB or CIF, timing of settlement is now critical. Cashmere products grew 6.97%, outperforming wool, indicating higher overseas pricing power for premium natural fibers, though volumes are too small to move the overall needle.
Domestic vs. Overseas: Stockpiling vs. Tepid Consumption
The import 'buying spree' contrasts sharply with weak domestic downstream demand. Total trade value of $6.06 billion grew 8.16%, but that was driven by imports (up 26.65%), not exports (up 2.29%).
From a chain perspective, active upstream stockpiling usually signals optimism about second-half orders. But if final consumption fails to recover, high inventories become a burden. Domestic apparel retail growth has slowed, with brands adopting conservative procurement—small batches, fast delivery—and lacking large orders.