217,041.33 tons, a year-on-year increase of 63%. The June cotton export data released by Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) has once again focused global attention on South America. The daily average export volume of 10,335.30 tons, a 56% increase from 6,640.90 tons in the same period last year, far exceeds the five-year average.
Supply and Demand Logic Behind the Surge
Brazil's cotton export explosion is no accident. On the supply side, the 2025/26 crop is forecast to hit a record high, with favorable weather in Mato Grosso and Bahia boosting yields. The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association expects total production to exceed 3.7 million tons, giving exporters ample inventory to meet international orders.
Demand-side changes are more critical. China, the world's largest cotton importer, has adjusted its procurement strategy in the first half of 2026. While Xinjiang cotton production remains stable, domestic textile mills are increasing imports of Brazilian and US cotton to meet non-Xinjiang cotton requirements in export orders. Brazilian cotton's price advantage is narrowing the gap with US cotton—industry data shows Brazilian cotton was $0.03-0.05/lb cheaper at Chinese ports in June, making it highly attractive to cost-sensitive spinners.
Transmission Effects Across the Supply Chain
The most direct impact of Brazil's export surge is downward pressure on international cotton prices. ICE cotton futures fell about 4% in June, as ample Brazilian supply aggravated expectations of a loose spot market. For Chinese cotton textile enterprises, lower raw material costs are a short-term benefit, but two risks require vigilance: the price gap between Brazilian and US cotton may narrow further, and RMB exchange rate fluctuations could offset some price advantages.
From a regional industry cluster perspective, the proportion of imported cotton used in traditional cotton spinning hubs like Shandong, Jiangsu, and Henan is rising. Some mills report that Brazilian cotton's fiber length and strength parameters are close to those of US cotton, but there are still gaps in impurity content and consistency. This means spinners need to adjust blending processes, and the impact on high-count yarn production requires further observation.
Long-Term Evolution of Global Cotton Trade
Brazil is transitioning from a 'substitute role' to a 'core supplier.' Over the past decade, its cotton exports have grown from about 1 million tons to over 2 million tons, with its global market share rising from about 10% to over 20%. This trend is supported by continuous improvements in agricultural infrastructure—the expansion of dedicated cotton berths at Santos Port and increased inland transport efficiency have enhanced Brazil's export cost competitiveness.
Meanwhile, US cotton is losing market share due to drought-related production declines and export logistics bottlenecks. US cotton exports fell about 12% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with some traditional buyers shifting to Brazil and Australia. For Chinese importers, this structural change means greater bargaining power in the future, but the lower supplier concentration also increases quality control complexity.