Polyester DTY Price Falls Below 9300 Yuan, Inventory Pressure Shifts to Chemical Fiber Sector

Polyester DTY prices fell below the 9,300 yuan per ton threshold in early July. On July 3, Kaisi Group quoted polyester DTY (150D/48F, AA grade, semi-dull low-elastic) at 9,300 yuan per ton, down about 0.2% from 9,318.75 yuan on July 2. This marks several consecutive days of the variety staying in the year's low range, reflecting subtle changes in the upstream-downstream dynamics of the chemical fiber chain.

Direct Drivers of Price Decline

This price softening is not an isolated corporate move. Industry public data shows that the benchmark price for polyester DTY on July 1 was still 9,318.75 yuan per ton, but it dropped significantly within just two days. As a major polyester supplier in East China, Kaisi Group's price adjustments often serve as a bellwether.

The key variable lies in the imbalance between supply and demand. Operating rates in downstream weaving clusters—Shaoxing, Xiaoshan, and Shengze—have generally declined since late June, with terminal orders dominated by short-term and small-scale batches, prompting mills to adopt a "buy-as-needed" strategy for raw materials. This has pushed finished product inventory days at chemical fiber plants from 12 days in May to the current 16-18 days. Some companies have opted to cut prices to destock and ease cash flow pressure.

Chain Reaction in the Industrial Chain

As a midstream raw material for weaving, polyester DTY price fluctuations quickly ripple upstream and downstream.
- For upstream PTA and MEG, squeezed margins will make chemical fiber plants more cautious in raw material procurement, potentially further depressing spot transaction prices for polyester raw materials.
- For downstream grey fabrics and finished fabrics, lower raw material costs should theoretically restore profit margins, but if terminal apparel brands continue to pressure prices, this benefit could be eroded.
- For fellow polyester varieties FDY and POY, DTY's price drop widens product price spreads, prompting some weaving mills to switch procurement varieties, intensifying competition in niche markets.

Notably, the quoted price is valid for only seven days, indicating companies lack clear confidence in the outlook and prefer short-term pricing to quickly test market reactions.

Differentiated Reactions in Regional Industrial Clusters

In chemical fiber production hubs like Shaoxing and Xiaoshan, some medium-sized factories have begun adjusting operating loads from full capacity to 80%-85% to avoid further inventory buildup. In industrial clusters such as Changle, Fujian, which focus on warp knitting with finer denier and higher filament count products, the impact is relatively smaller, but overall procurement pace has also slowed.

On the foreign trade front, inquiries for China's polyester DTY from Southeast Asian markets fell about 5% month-on-month in June, mainly due to underutilized local looms and the release of local chemical fiber capacity in India and Vietnam. This weak external demand, coupled with lackluster domestic demand, leaves little support for price recovery.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Current prices are near the cost lines of some producers. If inventory levels are low, consider phased procurement to lock in raw material costs, but avoid large one-time stockpiling. - Closely monitor mid-July weaving operating rate changes. If terminal orders recover, DTY prices may see a staged rebound, at which point increasing procurement would be prudent. - Negotiate short-term floating price agreements with suppliers, leveraging the current short validity window to secure more flexible pricing terms.

For Foreign Trade Companies - Keep a close watch on exchange rate fluctuations in Southeast Asia and South Asia. Recent currency depreciation in some countries may weaken the price competitiveness of Chinese polyester products. - Adjust export product mix toward high-value-added varieties (e.g., cationic dyeable, moisture-wicking) to avoid low-price competition. - Utilize the current low domestic prices to lock in forward order prices with overseas clients, hedging against future price increases.