On July 3, 2026, Rongsheng Petrochemical (including Shengyuan) announced local price reductions for polyester FDY, ranging from 100 to 200 RMB/ton. Specifications affected include semi-dull FDY 30D/24F, 75D/36F, 150D/96F, 200D/48F, 200D/96F, and 300D/96F, with adjusted prices between 8,300 and 10,950 RMB/ton. This price adjustment is not an isolated event but a micro reflection of the current supply-demand imbalance in the polyester chain. For the industry, it signals a shift in the game between upstream and downstream players.
Industrial Logic Behind the Price Cut
The direct reason for Rongsheng's price adjustment is the high inventory pressure in the polyester sector. Public data shows that average inventory days for polyester plants have climbed to over 20 days, far exceeding normal levels. Polyester filament yarn, as a core intermediate in the chain, is directly affected by end-demand weakness. Currently, operating rates of downstream weaving mills remain low, with the comprehensive water-jet loom rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang falling below 65%, down about 5 percentage points year-on-year. Although export orders for apparel show sporadic recovery, overall growth is insufficient to absorb upstream inventories. As an industry leader, Rongsheng's price move serves as a bellwether, likely prompting other polyester plants to follow, forming regional price linkage.
Multi-Dimensional Impact on the Chain
The FDY price cut directly pressures the spot market. Industry data indicates that the negotiation center has shifted downward, with some traders selling at 100-150 RMB/ton below the quoted price, exacerbating market wait-and-see sentiment. In the futures market, FDY-related contracts are under pressure, with a bearish multi-empty score. More notably, the price-cutting effect is spreading to other polyester categories. Polyester staple fiber, as a sibling product, has already been indirectly affected, with its multi-empty score dropping to -0.5. This means downside risk is propagating from filament to staple fiber and from upstream raw materials to midstream processing. For upstream PTA and MEG suppliers, the price cut may suppress raw material procurement, creating a negative feedback loop.
Shift in Downstream Procurement Strategy
Weaving mills are not responding actively to the price cut. Surveys in key textile clusters like Nantong and Shengze show that most mills prefer a 'hand-to-mouth' zero-inventory strategy rather than bargain hunting. The reason lies in the uncertainty of end orders—foreign buyers are highly price-sensitive and demand shorter delivery cycles, discouraging mills from stockpiling. Additionally, some mills have accumulated their own finished product inventories, straining cash flow and further curbing procurement willingness. This 'price cut without volume boost' scenario means that polyester plants' destocking efforts may prove ineffective in the short term, with price negotiations likely extending into Q3.