Shengze Yarn Market Holds Steady with Underlying Divergence, Adjustment Expected for Polyester and Viscose Yarns

The Shengze yarn market in early July presents a typically stable tone, but internal product divergence is emerging. While 21s and 32s cotton yarn maintain active trading, pure polyester 50s faces sluggish sales, and viscose 10s sees localized activity driven by diamond cotton fabric demand. This differentiated performance is setting the stage for subsequent price adjustments.

Product Divergence: Active Sales Coexist with Sluggishness

Comparing prices from July 3 to July 5, the entire cotton yarn line remains flat. The sustained activity in 21s and 32s is mainly due to stable demand from air-jet looms for expensive textile fabrics. In contrast, poor sales of pure polyester 50s have become a market focus, while 45s pure polyester yarn sees moderate trading supported by polyester-cotton lining orders.

In the viscose sector, the spotlight is on the 10s variety, whose active trading is directly linked to production preparations for diamond cotton fabric. Other viscose specifications have light trading volumes, with quotes remaining stable. Polyester-viscose yarn performs relatively firmly, with a few specifications seeing slight price increases. For example, T65/R35 32s from Jiangsu rose 100 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton.

Raw Material Cost Anchoring, Adjustment Expectations Rise

The anchoring effect of upstream raw material prices is clear. The average price of polyester staple fiber (1.56*38, cotton type) remains at 7,500 yuan/ton, while viscose staple fiber averages around 14,200 yuan/ton. These two key raw material prices have been range-bound for several consecutive days, but the market widely expects moderate adjustment pressure for pure polyester and viscose yarns in the near term.

The core logic behind the adjustment expectation is that downstream weaving enterprises are currently adopting a procurement strategy of buying on demand and using as needed, with little willingness to replenish inventory. Once gray fabric orders fluctuate, the price elasticity of the yarn sector will be triggered first. The sluggish sales of pure polyester 50s have already released an early signal of weak demand.

Transmission Effects on Buyers and Mills

This market condition of stability with underlying divergence implies different strategies for different segments of the supply chain. For air-jet weaving enterprises primarily using cotton yarn, the current stable price is a window to lock in costs. However, for factories using pure polyester yarn, especially the 50s specification, buyers should be alert to potential downside price risks.

Polyester-cotton yarn T80/C20 45s from Shanghai saw a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton, and T90/C10 60s from Heilongjiang also dropped 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. This indicates that some polyester-cotton yarn varieties have already loosened, potentially serving as leading indicators for an overall price adjustment.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Cotton yarn 21s and 32s are currently stable in price; purchase on demand without panic stockpiling, but consider increasing price lock agreements with suppliers. - Pure polyester 50s faces sluggish sales and is expected to have room for price cuts; delay large purchases and wait until mid-July for decision-making. - Viscose 10s is actively traded due to diamond cotton fabric demand, with tight short-term supply; buyers should prioritize securing supply.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Polyester-viscose yarn has seen price increases for certain specifications; export quotes should be updated promptly to avoid profit erosion from rising raw material costs. - Focus on varieties like polyester-cotton T80/C20 45s that have already seen price drops; use this opportunity to negotiate more competitive FOB quotes with overseas clients. - Under the expectation of pure polyester yarn adjustments, consider adding price adjustment clauses to long-term contracts to hedge against raw material volatility.