The polyester POY market flashed a signal worth watching in early July: a 150 yuan/ton price spread emerged for the same grade between different producing regions. Rongsheng Petrochemical priced 150D/48F semi-dull POY at 8,200 yuan/ton, while Juxing Chemical Fiber in Shaoxing quoted 8,050 yuan/ton. The gap, though moderate for a slack season, reveals shifts in two key variables—inventory levels and order-acceptance willingness.
Supply-Demand Logic Behind Regional Spread
Looking at delivery locations, Rongsheng's quote corresponds to Hangzhou, Juxing's to Shaoxing. The two cities are only about 100 kilometers apart, making logistics cost differences negligible. Thus, the 150 yuan spread likely reflects proactive price concessions by Juxing, suggesting greater destocking pressure or a more cautious outlook on future orders.
Public data also shows that the mainstream quote range for POY 150D/48F currently sits around 8,050—8,200 yuan/ton, down considerably from early this year. The reasons are clear: upstream PTA and MEG entered a weak consolidation phase at the end of Q2, weakening cost support; downstream weaving mills generally adopt a low-inventory, just-in-time procurement strategy with little appetite for stockpiling.
Two-Way Squeeze from Costs and Demand
As an intermediate polyester filament product, POY's price trajectory relies heavily on raw material costs and end-user orders. Currently, PTA processing margins have been compressed to low levels, but ample PX supply prevents PTA prices from rebounding significantly. Meanwhile, weaving sector operating rates hover around 60% during the traditional July off-season, with some small and medium-sized mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang even experiencing intermittent shutdowns.
In this scenario, POY producers face a dilemma: holding prices may lose customers, while cutting prices to move volume further squeezes already thin profits. The quote difference between Rongsheng and Juxing essentially reflects two different responses to this dilemma. The former leverages scale advantages and brand premium to maintain price resilience, while the latter leans toward trading volume for price.
Impact on Downstream Procurement Rhythm
For weaving mills and texturing plants, current POY prices are at a relatively low point within the year, but not necessarily the absolute bottom. Given no clear upward driver from raw materials and no concentrated release of end-apparel export orders, buyers can adopt a phased stocking strategy rather than a one-time heavy position.
It's worth noting that 150D/48F is a standard grade with good market liquidity. If prices break below the 8,000 yuan/ton threshold, it may trigger bottom-fishing buying, recalibrating the supply-demand balance.