The sudden collapse in US cotton export data is redefining the short-term pricing logic of the global cotton-textile supply chain.
Demand Gap Behind Export Data
The latest USDA weekly export sales report shows that for the week ending June 25, net sales of 2025/26 upland cotton were only 49,001 bales, down 42% from the previous week and a staggering 70% from the four-week average. This figure directly triggered a decline in ICE December cotton futures, settling at 77.12 cents/lb, down 0.92%.
More noteworthy is the absence of Chinese buyers. During the week, Chinese net purchases of current-year US cotton were only 5,518 bales, while bookings for the 2026/27 new crop were zero. In previous years, China was typically a major buyer of US cotton. The sudden slowdown in purchasing pace reflects a significant shift in inventory strategy among downstream textile enterprises.
Industry Logic Behind the Trading Range
Georgia cotton broker Keith Brown's assessment that prices will likely trade in a 75-80 cent range is being validated by the market. This judgment is backed by the tug-of-war between supply and demand: on the demand side, weak export data continues to pressure prices; on the supply side, the sharp decline in the US dollar index following weak employment data provides cost support for dollar-denominated cotton.
The US added only 57,000 jobs in June, far below the market expectation of 110,000. The unexpectedly weak employment data eased concerns about interest rate hikes but also weighed on the dollar. For importing countries like China, a weaker dollar means lower renminbi-denominated import costs, which partially offsets the willingness to purchase driven by the absolute price decline.
Transmission Effects on Textile Industrial Clusters
For domestic textile industrial clusters, the range-bound movement of cotton prices means a narrower and more uncertain procurement window. Clusters like Keqiao and Shengze typically adjust their raw material inventory cycles based on cotton price fluctuations. The current 75-80 cent range is neither a safe zone for bargain hunting nor a trigger point for chasing gains, requiring more precise cost calculations for procurement decisions.
For foreign trade enterprises, as one of the core raw materials for apparel fabrics, cotton price fluctuations directly transmit to export quotations. The weak US cotton export data reflects, from one side, insufficient recovery in global end-consumer demand, putting pressure on both order cycles and profit margins.