Polyester POY prices are undergoing a new round of loosening. In early July 2026, public quotes for the 150D/48F semi-dull variety fell below 8,200 yuan/ton, with some small and medium-sized producers offering as low as 8,050 yuan/ton. This represents a decline of over 10% compared to the same period last year, significantly squeezing industry profit margins.
Industrial Logic Behind Price Divergence
For the same specification and grade of polyester POY, Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 8,200 yuan/ton while Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 8,050 yuan/ton, a spread of 150 yuan/ton. This is not merely a regional difference—both companies are in Zhejiang Province, one in Hangzhou and the other in Shaoxing, just over 100 kilometers apart. This price gap reflects the core contradiction in the current polyester filament market: under overcapacity, pricing strategies among firms of different scales are diverging. Large enterprises, with their integrated industrial chains (Rongsheng has a complete chain from PX to PTA to polyester), can maintain relatively firm quotes, while small and medium-sized chemical fiber plants face more direct inventory pressure and have to trade volume for price.
For downstream weaving mills, this price signal means a purchasing window is opening, but it also implies greater uncertainty. If large enterprises subsequently follow with price cuts, current low prices may not be the bottom.
Ripple Effects in Zhejiang's Industrial Belt
Zhejiang Province is the core production area for China's polyester filament, with Hangzhou and Shaoxing accounting for about 40% of the country's POY capacity. This price decline directly impacts the profitability of local chemical fiber companies. For the 150D/48F variety, current prices are close to the cash cost line for some small and medium-sized enterprises. If raw material PTA prices rebound, these companies will face loss risks.
From an industrial chain transmission perspective, weakening POY prices quickly pass down to the DTY and weaving segments. Draw-texturing mills in areas like Shaoxing and Xiaoshan are currently reluctant to purchase, generally adopting a 'buy-as-needed' strategy to avoid inventory depreciation from falling raw material prices. This further exacerbates the shipment pressure on POY companies, forming a negative feedback loop.
Deep Evolution of Supply-Demand Dynamics
The fundamental reason for the decline in polyester POY prices is supply-demand imbalance. Since 2025, domestic polyester capacity has continued to expand, with new POY capacity in Zhejiang alone exceeding 2 million tons annually. However, downstream demand growth has slowed significantly—final garment export growth has moderated, and domestic consumption recovery has fallen short of expectations. According to China Customs data, textile and apparel export value in the first half of 2026 grew only 2.3% year-on-year, far below the pace of capacity expansion.
More notably, the current POY price decline is not a seasonal adjustment but a reflection of structural oversupply. Even as the traditional peak season for the third quarter approaches, the market shows no clear signs of recovery. Industry data indicates that POY social inventories have risen to over 30 days, well above the 15-day safety threshold.