Polyester POY Prices Weaken: 150D Grade Sees Decline as Inventory Pressure Builds

The price of polyester POY is flashing a warning signal. On July 3, industry data showed that the mainstream price range for 150D/48F semi-dull POY had slipped to 8,050-8,200 CNY/ton, with a spread of 150 CNY/ton between different producers. In the chemical fiber market, such a spread is not merely a promotional tactic but an early sign of inventory pressure transmitting from upstream to midstream.

Supply-Demand Logic Behind the Price Signal

The price difference between Rongsheng Petrochemical and Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber highlights two key facts. First, large integrated refining-petrochemical players (like Rongsheng) leverage their full PX-PTA-polyester chain to maintain firmer quotes; the 8,200 CNY/ton listing price is more a signal to stabilize market confidence. Second, smaller polyester plants (like Juxing) offer lower quotes at 8,050 CNY/ton, approaching the industry's average cash cost line. This reflects the reality that, against a backdrop of weakening raw material prices (especially PTA), plants lacking upstream-downstream hedging ability can only cut prices to move inventory.

On the cost side, recent narrow fluctuations in naphtha and PX prices have provided no effective support for POY. Spot PTA prices remain in the 5,600-5,700 CNY/ton range, down about 2% from last month, directly weakening POY's cost anchor. More critically, downstream operations are sluggish: the composite operating rate of Jiangsu-Zhejiang weaving mills has fallen from 78% in early June to around 74%, while gray fabric inventory days have risen to over 35. Weaving mills are purchasing POY only for immediate needs, with speculative hoarding virtually absent.

Regional Industrial Belt Reactions and Divergence

Shaoxing and Hangzhou are the most pronounced regions in this price divergence. Shaoxing, one of China's largest chemical fiber weaving clusters, is densely populated with small and medium-sized mills highly sensitive to price. Juxing's low price of 8,050 CNY/ton is essentially a concession to local customers' 'buy on rising, not falling' mentality. When end-order demand is weak, mills delay purchases to avoid raw material depreciation losses, forcing suppliers to lower prices to trigger transactions.

In contrast, while Rongsheng's Hangzhou listing price is higher, actual transactions may involve hidden discounts (e.g., acceptance bill subsidies, volume rebates), with the public quote serving more as an anchor. Such 'apparent stability, hidden weakness' operations are not uncommon in the polyester industry, but a 150 CNY/ton public spread is still relatively high, indicating that competition among sellers has moved from behind the scenes into the open.

Transmission Effects on Procurement and Exports

Weaker POY prices will transmit down the chain. For draw-texturing mills, POY is the key raw material for DTY. If POY continues to weaken, DTY prices will also come under pressure, compressing processing margins. Currently, DTY 150D/48F is trading around 9,400-9,600 CNY/ton, with the POY-DTY spread at 1,200-1,400 CNY/ton, in the historical middle range. If POY falls below 8,000 CNY/ton, DTY is likely to follow below 9,000 CNY/ton.

The impact on exports is more complex. In the first half of 2026, China's polyester filament yarn exports grew about 8% year-on-year, but the average export price fell 3%. Local capacity in overseas markets (especially Southeast Asia and South Asia) is ramping up. Demand for low-cost Chinese POY remains, but customer price pressure is intensifying. At the current 8,050 CNY/ton quote, POY FOB is approximately 1,010 USD/ton, already below the cash cost of some Southeast Asian plants. This could temporarily boost export orders, but any fluctuation in the CNY exchange rate would recalculate export competitiveness.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Monitor PTA and PX futures trends: POY prices are highly correlated with raw materials. If PTA breaks below 5,500 CNY/ton, POY will likely fall below 8,000 CNY/ton. Wait for a lower entry point. - Differentiate 'listed quotes' from 'actual transaction prices': In the current market, requesting 'ex-factory self-pickup' or 'acceptance bill' prices from suppliers often yields larger discounts, especially from mills in concentrated production areas like Shaoxing and Tongxiang. - Control purchasing rhythm: Shorten the regular procurement cycle from 15 days to 7-10 days to avoid holding excess inventory during a price downtrend.

For Exporters - Lock in forward exchange rates for long-term orders: Current POY export prices are already low. For contracts over 3 months, use forward forex hedging to prevent CNY appreciation from eroding profits. - Monitor anti-dumping developments in Southeast Asia: Countries like Indonesia and Vietnam have initiated anti-dumping investigations against some Chinese polyester products. POY, as an intermediate, may be affected. Negotiate tariff-sharing clauses with customers in advance. - Exploit price spread advantages: The current price gap between Chinese POY and that in India/Turkey is 50-80 USD/ton. Target price-sensitive markets in Africa and the Middle East.