Polyester POY Prices Soften: 150D/48F Semi-Dull Breaks Below 8,200 Yuan, Bottom Signals Emerge in Chemical Fiber Chain

Polyester POY (150D/48F semi-dull) saw price divergence on July 3, 2026: Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 8,200 yuan/ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 8,050 yuan/ton. The 150-yuan spread signals two key dynamics—a widening cost-bearing gap between top-tier and smaller players, and the market's shift from a high plateau toward buyer-driven negotiation.

Supply-Demand Dynamics Behind the Softening

According to industry data, Rongsheng's 8,200 yuan/ton represents a 2.4% drop from its mid-June level of 8,400 yuan/ton, while Juxing's 8,050 yuan/ton approaches the psychological 8,000 yuan threshold. This trend is no accident. Upstream PTA and MEG prices weakened through late June, directly lowering POY polymerization costs. Meanwhile, major POY-producing zones in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing maintained operating rates above 85%, but downstream weaving mills held only 15-20 days of raw material inventory, showing little appetite for restocking.

POY mills face a dilemma: holding prices risks losing market share, while aggressive cuts could trigger a chain-wide price rout. The Rongsheng-Juxing spread reveals a strategic divergence—large mills prefer gradual reductions to stabilize expectations, while smaller players compete aggressively for orders.

Impact on Downstream Weaving and Exports

POY is the direct feedstock for draw-textured yarn (DTY), and price shifts quickly propagate to weaving hubs in Shaoxing, Shengze, and Changle. At current 8,050-8,200 yuan/ton, a further decline to 7,800 yuan/ton would cut DTY costs by 300-400 yuan/ton, creating room for gray fabric and finished textile price reductions. For exporters already facing Southeast Asian competition, this is a double-edged sword: lower costs improve quoting competitiveness but risk igniting a new price war.

Working capital dynamics also matter. POY purchases typically use spot-cash or monthly settlement terms. In a downcycle, weavers prefer smaller, faster-turnover buys rather than stockpiling. This 'buy-on-rise, avoid-on-fall' psychology exacerbates POY mill inventory pressure, creating a negative feedback loop.

Actionable Recommendations

For Buyers - Current POY quotes are near short-term lows but not necessarily the absolute bottom. Adopt weekly batch replenishment to avoid locking in high prices in a single trade. - Monitor monthly settlement prices (M-prices) from major producers like Rongsheng and Hengyi. If the spread against spot exceeds 200 yuan/ton, prioritize futures or forward contracts to lock costs. - For 150D/48F grade, negotiate price protection clauses with suppliers, agreeing to refund the difference if market prices fall more than 3% within 30 days.

For Exporters - Leverage the POY price dip to renegotiate H2 order FOB quotes with Southeast Asian clients, proactively conceding to secure order volumes. - Hedge against currency risk: if RMB depreciation is expected in Q3, quote in USD and lock forward exchange rates. - Prepare cost breakdown sheets showing how lower POY prices translate into fabric cost reductions, using them as negotiation tools to demonstrate 'justifiable price pass-through' to buyers.