On July 3, 2026, the market quotation for polyester POY (150D/48F semi-dull) once again validated the expectation of a 'peak season without peak' in the chemical fiber industry. Rongsheng Petrochemical's ex-factory price in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, was 8,200 RMB/ton, while Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber in Shaoxing quoted 8,050 RMB/ton, a spread of only 150 RMB/ton. This data point, in the current industrial chain context, is far more than a simple price list—it reflects structural adjustments brewing on both the supply and demand sides.
Price Signals: A Game Near Cost Lines
Looking at quotations from two major chemical fiber bases in East China, polyester POY has fallen to its lowest range in nearly six months. Taking Rongsheng's 8,200 RMB/ton as an example, this price level is about 12%-15% lower year-on-year, while upstream PTA and MEG prices have only dropped by 8%-10%. This means the profit margin in the POY segment has been further squeezed, with industry average processing profits likely below 300 RMB/ton. For medium-sized enterprises like Zhejiang Juxing, the 8,050 RMB/ton quotation is close to their cash cost line—once it breaks below 8,000 RMB/ton, some production lines will be forced into maintenance or shutdown.
More importantly, these two quotations are not isolated. Hangzhou and Shaoxing are among the most concentrated areas for polyester POY capacity, and the synchronized decline indicates a collective reflection of regional supply-demand imbalance. Downstream weaving mills generally adopt a 'buy-as-needed' strategy, shortening order cycles to 3-5 days, causing POY factory inventory levels to rise from the normal 7-10 days to over 15 days.
Industry Impact: Transmission from POY to Fabrics
The sustained low POY prices are transmitting downstream along the industrial chain. The 150D/48F specification is one of the most widely used raw materials in polyester fabrics, primarily for producing imitation silk, peach skin, and spring yarn fabrics. Every 100 RMB/ton drop in POY price reduces gray fabric costs by about 1.5%-2%. However, in reality, gray fabric prices have not decreased synchronously—weaving mills, burdened by high-cost raw material inventories, are instead trying to hold prices. This 'upstream falling, downstream resisting' situation leads to a severe imbalance in profit distribution across the chain.
From a terminal demand perspective, apparel brands' procurement volume for the 2026 autumn/winter season decreased by 5%-8% year-on-year, mainly due to the ongoing destocking cycle in European and American markets. After the domestic e-commerce '618' promotion, fabric replenishment orders were weaker than expected, further weakening POY procurement support. Texworld research shows that operating rates in weaving clusters like Shengze and Changxing have dropped from 75% in May to the current 68%, with some small mills switching to single-shift night production.
For POY producers, current coping strategies are essentially two-fold: actively reduce production to support prices, or extend the downstream chain to absorb self-produced POY. Rongsheng Petrochemical, with its integrated PTA-polyester-spinning advantages, can internally digest part of its POY capacity, but independent POY plants like Juxing face greater market risks.