June marked the critical transition of the national cotton crop from seedling to the squaring and flowering stage, but a clear climate divergence is emerging among major cotton-producing regions. Data from the National Meteorological Center, covering 148 cotton-producing counties across 11 provinces, shows that the average temperature in June across all cotton regions was 26.1°C, 0.9°C above the norm. Average sunshine was 202.2 hours, 11.4 hours below the norm, and average precipitation was 97.7 mm, slightly down by 2.8 mm. While the overall climate suitability index was rated as 'suitable,' the underlying divergence between Xinjiang and the Yangtze River basin is reshaping yield expectations.
Xinjiang: Abundant Light and Heat, but Heat Stress Looms
The Northwest Inland cotton region recorded an average June temperature of 26.7°C, 2.2°C above the norm—the highest deviation among the three major regions. Monthly sunshine reached 265 hours, slightly below the norm, but total light and heat were still ample. However, two rounds of widespread, persistent high temperatures from June 1-4 and from June 9 onward directly impacted cotton squaring. For the textile supply chain, this means the boll-setting rate for early-season bolls in Xinjiang cotton may be lower than normal, potentially affecting quality distribution and pricing when the new crop hits the market. Historically, sustained temperatures above 35°C can lead to pollen sterility and increased boll shedding, ultimately reducing per-unit yield.
Yangtze River Basin: Waterlogging Shock After Plum Rain Onset
After the plum rain season began on June 18, heavy precipitation events followed in succession in the Yangtze River basin cotton region. Monthly precipitation reached 180.4 mm, though down 83.2 mm year-on-year, the concentration of rainfall increased significantly, with some cotton fields receiving 50% to 100% more rain than the norm. Persistent rainfall caused waterlogging damage in low-lying fields, delaying cotton development by 9 to 10 days in parts of Hubei and Hunan. For regions relying on early-maturing varieties, this extends the risk window for encountering autumn rains. Waterlogging during the squaring stage reduces root vigor and nutrient uptake, directly constraining boll development.
Yellow River Valley: The Relatively Favorable 'Balance Zone'
The Yellow River valley cotton region experienced relatively stable weather in June. The average temperature was 25.9°C, essentially flat with the norm; sunshine was 223.3 hours, 4.4 hours above the norm; and precipitation was 77.2 mm, 1.8 mm above the norm. Intermittent thundershowers maintained good soil moisture without prolonged drought or flooding. This region became the most stable production area in June, laying a solid foundation for later boll growth. From a procurement perspective, cotton from the Yellow River valley is likely to show better grade consistency than from climate-impacted regions, making it a focus for buyers.
July Outlook: Dual Risks of Heat Stress and Wet Damage
The weather outlook for July indicates above-normal temperatures across most cotton regions, with more high-temperature days than usual. Precipitation is forecast to be above normal in western Xinjiang, the northern Yellow River valley, and most of the Yangtze River basin, with some areas—including western Xinjiang, southern Jiangsu, southern Anhui, northwestern Jiangxi, southeastern Hubei, and northeastern Hunan—seeing 20% to 50% more rain than the norm. This means the Xinjiang region faces dual pressure from heat stress and localized waterlogging in the west; the Yangtze basin's waterlogging risk continues to accumulate; and the northern Yellow River valley needs to guard against wet damage from excess rain.
From an industry transmission perspective, the climate in June and July will directly affect new-crop yield expectations and quality profiles, which in turn will influence seed cotton purchase prices at the start of the season in September and the pricing of ginned cotton in both spot and futures markets. For downstream mills, the price spread between Xinjiang and inland cotton may widen due to quality divergence, requiring proactive procurement strategy adjustments.