13,625 CNY/ton—that is the benchmark price of nylon POY on July 6, 2026. Behind this seemingly stagnant figure lies a price curve with an amplitude of 5,650 CNY/ton: over the past year, the product hit a low of 11,300 CNY/ton and a high of 16,950 CNY/ton. The current level sits near the historical midpoint, a zone that is neither a bargain nor a peak, yet precisely the hardest to read for directional trading.
Supply-Demand Standoff at Mid-Range
According to annual statistics, the average price of nylon POY over the past year stands at 12,800.41 CNY/ton, meaning the current price is about 6.4% above the mean. This premium is modest, but when combined with the top deviation (-3,325 CNY/ton) and bottom deviation (+2,325 CNY/ton), it becomes clear that price elasticity has narrowed significantly. For textile buyers, this means there is neither a safe margin for bottom-fishing nor momentum for chasing rallies.
More telling is the streak of zero daily changes. A price plateau often signals not equilibrium but a stalemate in expectations. Upstream caprolactam suppliers try to hold prices firm, while downstream weaving mills keep raw material inventories lean due to unclear end-order visibility. If this standoff persists, inventory will shift from midstream to upstream, eventually forcing prices downward.
Chain Transmission: From Nylon POY to End Fabrics
Nylon POY is the precursor to nylon filament yarn, mainly used for weaving nylon fabrics that go into sportswear, down jackets, luggage, and more. The current mid-range price essentially reflects subdued final demand.
- Orders for spring/summer 2026 sportswear have largely wrapped up, while autumn/winter restocking has yet to kick off, slowing fabric mills' purchasing pace.
- Polyester filament yarn, a substitute for nylon, has been trending lower, prompting some mills to switch to blended or all-polyester recipes to cut costs, further squeezing nylon demand.
- On the export front, the recovery of textile capacity in Southeast Asia has eroded China's price advantage in low-end nylon fabrics. High-end differentiated products continue to grow but in volumes too small to lift raw material prices.
Inventory Cycles and Price Expectations
Placing the current price in a longer cycle: from July 2025 to July 2026, nylon POY prices went through a full cycle of rapid rise, sharp fall, and low-level consolidation. The peak of 16,950 CNY/ton occurred in Q4 2025, when caprolactam supply tightened due to plant maintenance, combined with pre-Singles Day restocking demand. Then new capacity came online and demand weakened, driving prices down to the year's low of 11,300 CNY/ton.
The current level of 13,625 CNY/ton is in a post-decline recovery phase, but the recovery momentum is weak. Industry data shows nylon POY operating rates at around 70%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year, with some small and medium manufacturers cutting output or switching production. Supply is shrinking passively, but no signs of demand improvement have emerged.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Adopt a phased replenishment strategy, buying in tranches at dips rather than locking in large volumes at the current mid-range price. - Monitor caprolactam plant maintenance schedules and crude oil price fluctuations, as these are the two key triggers that could break the current deadlock. - If end-order signals improve—such as brand restocking for autumn/winter—consider raising safety stock to 15-20 days.
For Producers - Keep finished goods inventory lean, targeting a turnover of no more than 10 days for nylon POY to avoid forced accumulation in a downward cycle. - Accelerate development of differentiated products such as high-elasticity, micro-denier, or antibacterial nylon POY to escape price competition in commodity grades. - Establish flexible pricing mechanisms with downstream weavers, such as monthly average settlement or price guarantee agreements, to share price risk.
The price stalemate in nylon POY will not last forever. It will be broken either by a sharp move in costs or an unexpected recovery in demand. Until the signal is clear, liquidity management should be the top priority for every link in the chain.