On July 6, the spot price of polyester staple fiber in Jiangsu region saw a modest rebound, with the mainstream trading range moving up by 10 yuan/ton to 7130-7200 yuan/ton. This price movement is seen within the industry as a signal of temporary stabilization, but the low-end transaction price still hovers around 6950 yuan/ton, indicating that the bottom support is not solid.
Short-Term Resonance on the Cost and Supply Side
The direct driver of this rebound comes from upstream. From late June to early July, international crude oil prices edged up on supply tightening expectations, pulling polyester raw materials such as PTA and MEG higher. This lifted the cost line for staple fiber producers, who in turn raised factory ex-works prices. Meanwhile, some staple fiber units in Jiangsu underwent routine maintenance in late June, narrowing regional spot availability and providing a factual basis for traders to support prices.
However, it is worth noting that the increase is only 10 yuan/ton, and volume in the higher price range has not expanded significantly. According to publicly available industry data, most transactions on the morning of July 6 were still concluded below 7150 yuan/ton, with offers above 7200 yuan/ton lacking effective buying follow-through. This suggests that the current price increase is more a result of sellers' proactive price hikes rather than buyers' chasing higher prices.
The Real Temperature of Demand
The downstream of polyester staple fiber is mainly divided into two areas: spinning (pure polyester yarn, polyester-cotton blended yarn) and nonwovens. From recent end-order tracking, neither has shown a trend of recovery. Spinners generally report that the traditional summer off-season, coupled with the ongoing destocking cycle of overseas apparel brands, has led to slow yarn sales. As a result, their raw material procurement remains on a need-to-buy basis with little inventory building. In the nonwovens sector, while demand for hygiene materials is relatively stable, overcapacity means processors remain highly price-sensitive and reluctant to accept price increases.
Therefore, this 10 yuan/ton rebound is essentially a passive cost-driven price repair. Once upstream raw material prices retreat, the spot price of staple fiber is likely to fall back below 7000 yuan/ton. For buyers, the current price does not have the support for a trend reversal; instead, it may confirm a short-term peak.
Regional Market and Inventory Structure
Jiangsu, as one of the major producing regions for polyester staple fiber in China, has a spot price that serves as a bellwether for East China and even the national market. Current staple fiber inventories in Jiangsu are at moderately low levels, providing a buffer for traders to support prices. However, the inventory structure shows clear divergence: high-grade, high-value-added products (e.g., imitation large-denier, spunlace-grade) are tight, while regular spinning-grade staple fiber inventories are relatively ample. This structural difference means that bargaining power varies significantly across product categories.
Additionally, the substitution effect between Xinjiang cotton and polyester staple fiber has weakened recently. Cotton prices remain firm under policy reserve expectations, leading some spinners to reassess the ratio of chemical fiber substitution. However, this incremental demand has yet to translate into actual staple fiber purchase orders, remaining mostly at the inquiry stage.