The feedstock end of the polyester chain is undergoing a rare structural tightening. Since late June, prices of PX, PTA, and MEG have risen together, with PX and PTA posting particularly strong gains of 1.37% and 1.26%, respectively, significantly outperforming downstream polyester products. The direct driver is the supply contraction expectation from concentrated plant turnarounds, coupled with sentiment recovery from stabilizing crude oil prices.
Supply Side: Unprecedented PX Maintenance, Operating Rate Hits Historic Low
In the PX segment, the scale of supply cuts is unprecedented. Sinopec's 4-million-ton-per-year PX unit has been shut down for scheduled maintenance, expected to last 45 days. Hainan Refining & Chemical has also reduced output on its 660,000-ton-per-year PX line, with the maintenance cycle extending three months. Industry data shows that combined with other planned reductions, the domestic PX operating rate is expected to fall below 60% in early July, a historic low.
What does this mean? For downstream PTA plants, spot PX supply will face a temporary gap, raising feedstock procurement costs. For traders, PX prices are likely to remain firm in the short term. However, once maintenance units restart as scheduled, supply recovery may outpace demand recovery, posing a risk of price corrections.
Midstream Transmission: PTA Maintenance Wave Continues, Capacity Utilization Stays Low
The PTA sector is also experiencing significant maintenance pressure. Since April, a wave of concentrated turnarounds has swept the industry, with total capacity involved exceeding 22 million tons, or over 20% of domestic capacity. Daily capacity utilization fell to about 60%, the lowest since October 2021. In June and July, the scale of units awaiting maintenance remains large, keeping utilization low.
For PTA processors, the current processing margin has recovered. This introduces a key variable: will maintenance fulfillment rates decline due to improved profitability? Some planned shutdowns may be delayed or canceled if margins remain favorable. Meanwhile, the restart progress of already-idled units is worth tracking—if restarts come faster than expected, PTA supply will quickly increase, capping price upside.
MEG: Coal Chemical Maintenance Meets Rising Imports, Bull-Bear Battle Intensifies
The MEG market is seeing a tug-of-war between supply and demand. In July, coal chemical units are undergoing concentrated maintenance, involving several plants, and production is expected to drop notably. However, import pressure is building. According to China Customs data, MEG imports were about 200,000 tons in May, with similar levels in June-July. But in August, port imports are projected to rise to 400,000 tons, doubling month-on-month. The increase stems from improved sea lane access and higher vessel arrivals.
This means short-term MEG prices may be supported by domestic output cuts, but medium-term, rising imports will gradually fill the supply gap, limiting price upside. Currently, MEG prices are oscillating weakly, with the market focusing on whether downstream demand can provide an unexpected boost during the off-season.
Downstream Reality: Weaving Off-Season Lacks Large Orders, Confidence Recovery Takes Time
July marks the traditional off-season for polyester end-users, and the weaving sector has limited ability to absorb upstream price hikes. In June, the average operating rate for weaving mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 52.4%, up 1 percentage point month-on-month but down 8 percentage points year-on-year. This indicates current operating levels are far below last year.
- Local demand has warmed slightly, such as for autumn/winter fleece fabrics, but overall market lacks large orders, and mills are reluctant to raise operating rates.
- Inventory pressure remains along the chain, with mills adopting a cautious stance, replenishing only for immediate needs and avoiding speculative stockpiling.
- The inflection point for second-half new orders has yet to appear; the market is waiting for the release of autumn/winter orders in August-September.
In summary, the current cost-side shift in the polyester chain is driven more by supply contraction than demand recovery. Once maintenance units restart, supply elasticity will re-pressure prices. For buyers and foreign trade firms, the short-term focus should be on PX maintenance fulfillment rates and PTA margin changes, while the medium-term focus should be on MEG import arrival schedules and weaving order recovery signals.