The price of nylon FDY has been stuck at 16,300 RMB/ton for a full year. Looking at the price trajectory from July 2025 to July 2026, this figure is neither a bottom nor a peak, but an awkward mid-low level for both buyers and sellers.
Over the past year, the highest price of nylon FDY reached 19,950 RMB/ton, and the lowest dipped to 14,175 RMB/ton, with an amplitude close to 30%. However, the current price sits below the median of 17,062.5 RMB/ton, with a top gap of 3,650 RMB and a bottom gap of 2,125 RMB. This indicates that the market has neither seen panic selling nor a trend-driven rally, but has fallen into a stalemate where it can neither rise nor fall deeply.
The Logic Behind the Price Stalemate
This sideways pattern is essentially the result of a three-way tug-of-war between upstream costs, midstream capacity, and downstream demand.
On the cost side, caprolactam, the main raw material for nylon FDY, has also seen its price volatility narrow over the past year, failing to provide clear cost support or pressure for nylon. This price inertia in raw materials has directly transmitted to the nylon segment.
On the supply side, the domestic nylon industry experienced a wave of capacity releases in 2024-2025, with new production lines coming online, significantly increasing market supply. When supply growth outpaces demand growth, prices naturally face downward pressure. However, leading companies have regulated market supply through maintenance and production cuts, preventing prices from sliding further toward the bottom of the range.
On the demand side, downstream weaving and apparel sectors have been generally subdued from the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026. The recovery in end-consumer demand has been weaker than expected, with brands adopting a 'small batch, multiple orders' procurement strategy, disrupting the rhythm of nylon FDY orders and lacking the momentum for concentrated demand.
Transmission Effects on Industrial Clusters
The price trend of nylon FDY directly impacts the operating rates and profitability of major nylon clusters such as Changle in Fujian, Xiaoshan in Zhejiang, and Nantong in Jiangsu.
In the Changle area, some small and medium-sized nylon enterprises are already experiencing 'production at a loss'—raw material costs are based on spot prices, but product selling prices are suppressed by market low-price competition. Some companies have proactively reduced operating rates, shifting to differentiated products (such as functional nylon and fine denier yarns) to avoid homogeneous competition.
Weaving mills in Xiaoshan and Nantong are taking advantage of this price window to stock up moderately at low levels. However, inventory levels are generally controlled within 15-20 days, rarely exceeding one month. This 'buy-as-needed' mentality in turn suppresses the potential for a price rebound.
Three Scenarios for Future Price Trends
Based on current data, the price of nylon FDY in the next 3-6 months is likely to follow one of three scenarios:
- Scenario 1 (40% probability): Continued sideways movement, fluctuating narrowly within the 15,500-17,000 RMB/ton range. This requires both raw materials and demand to remain unchanged, and is the most likely path.
- Scenario 2 (35% probability): Gradual decline, touching 15,000 RMB/ton or lower. This could be triggered by further capacity additions and shrinking downstream orders during the traditional off-season (July-August).
- Scenario 3 (25% probability): Moderate rebound, breaking through 17,500 RMB/ton. This would require cost-push from raw materials or concentrated restocking by downstream buyers.