May's textile and apparel export data from China presents a mixed picture: overall exports grew 6.4% month-on-month, but performance across major markets diverged sharply. Exports to the US reached $4.52 billion, up 29% year-on-year, becoming the brightest spot. In contrast, exports to the EU fell 9%, to ASEAN dropped 2.3%, and to Belt and Road countries declined 7.7%. This structural divergence stems from the interplay of trade policies, inventory cycles, and regional competition.
The Short-Term Logic Behind US Growth
The surge in exports to the US in May is directly linked to a phased easing of Sino-US trade relations since early this year. Orders previously held back by tariff uncertainties were released, combined with restocking demand from retailers. Cumulatively from January to May, exports to the US reached $19.1 billion, up 11.3%, accounting for about 16.4% of total exports.
However, caution is warranted. The growth may be more about "order rush" than a genuine recovery. US import data for April shows total textile and apparel imports fell 11.8% year-on-year, with imports from China plummeting 30.5%, far exceeding declines from Vietnam (-0.1%) and India (-32.1%). This indicates that China's market share in the US is being eroded by alternative suppliers like Vietnam. The May rebound is likely a short-term order adjustment, not a structural recovery.
EU Market: China's Share Rises, but Total Volume Pressured
The EU market presents a more complex picture. While China's exports to the EU fell 9% in May, EU imports from China in April actually rose 11.7% to $3.31 billion, accounting for 30% of total EU imports. These seemingly contradictory figures reveal deeper supply chain shifts.
Despite a 1.8% decline in overall EU imports in April, China's share grew, suggesting strong competitiveness, especially as imports from Bangladesh (-15.9%) and Turkey (-2.2%) dropped. However, the May decline in China's exports to the EU likely reflects slowing economic growth in the EU and tighter inventory management by retailers.
ASEAN and Belt and Road: Growth Engines Stalling?
Markets once seen as new growth drivers—ASEAN and Belt and Road—both declined in May. Exports to ASEAN fell 2.3%, and to Belt and Road countries fell 7.7%. Cumulatively from January to May, exports to ASEAN dropped 2.2% and to Belt and Road fell 2.9%.
This trend deserves close attention. ASEAN markets, previously benefiting from industrial relocation and re-exports, are now facing currency depreciation and rising inflation, suppressing consumer demand. Meanwhile, as RCEP dividends materialize, regional competition is intensifying—Vietnam, Indonesia, and others are rapidly expanding textile capacity, squeezing China's market share.
Strategies for Exporters
The current market divergence calls for a shift from blanket strategies to nuanced market operations.
For Buyers - Exercise caution with US orders: assess tariff risks, avoid overstocking based on short-term growth, and adopt short-order, fast-response models to reduce inventory pressure. - In the EU market, focus on high-end functional fabrics and sustainable-certified products to differentiate against overall volume declines. - For ASEAN orders, enhance local service capabilities, such as setting up overseas warehouses or co-developing with local brands to improve supply chain responsiveness.
For Exporters - Diversify market risk: expand into the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and other emerging markets to reduce dependence on traditional ones. - Increase product value: invest in technical fabrics, eco-friendly processes, and brand licensing to avoid low-price competition. - Monitor currency fluctuations: lock in exchange rates for non-USD settlements in advance to minimize forex losses.
Overall, May's data brings both short-term relief and long-term warnings. Exporters must shift from "volume growth" to "quality competition" to stay resilient in an increasingly fragmented global market.