The price data for textile bulk commodities on July 6, 2026, reveals a critical signal: upstream cost support and downstream demand weakness are acting simultaneously, squeezing profit margins across the supply chain. PTA surged 1.48% daily and 14.90% year-on-year, while acrylonitrile plummeted 3.05%. This divergence is not an isolated event; it reflects a clear split within the chemical fiber sector and alerts downstream weaving and garment companies to adjust their procurement pace.
The 'Fire and Ice' of Upstream Raw Materials
PTA's strong performance is closely tied to crude oil price volatility and tight PX supply. As the core raw material for the polyester chain, PTA has been climbing since the second half of 2025, reaching 5,780.66 yuan/ton, a near two-year high. On the same day, cotton prices rose 0.45%, with a year-on-year gain of 17.58%, reflecting cotton market strength amid global production cut expectations and domestic reserve release schedules. Polyester staple fiber edged up 0.11%, a modest 7.77% year-on-year increase.
In contrast, acrylonitrile fell 3.05% to 9,533.33 yuan/ton, though still 19.42% higher year-on-year. This sharp short-term decline suggests weak orders in downstream acrylic fiber and ABS resin sectors, with inventory pressure pushing back upstream. Polyester filament yarns—POY and DTY—also dropped 1.21% and 0.20% respectively, contrasting sharply with PTA's rise. This indicates that processing margins in the polyester filament segment are being compressed, as weaving mills remain cautious and show limited acceptance of high-priced raw materials.
Transmission Logic of Price Divergence to Procurement and Production
From a supply chain perspective, PTA rising while polyester POY/DTY falling means polyester mills' cash flows are deteriorating. For POY, PTA accounts for about 70% of raw material costs. Every 1% increase in PTA raises POY costs by roughly 0.7%. But with POY prices not rising, processing margins will inevitably narrow. This may force some small and medium polyester plants to cut operating rates or schedule maintenance, potentially tightening polyester filament supply in the coming weeks.
For weaving mills, the current inconsistency in raw material prices complicates procurement decisions. If PTA is expected to continue rising, downstream mills may stock up early. However, if export orders remain weak, hoarding could lead to inventory depreciation. This tug-of-war will intensify in Q3 2026. Export-oriented cotton and chemical fiber fabric companies must closely monitor exchange rates and overseas retailers' restocking cycles.
Overall Decline Signals a Turning Point in the Inventory Cycle
- The average daily change for the textile sector was -0.14%. Though small, this continues a streak of minor declines.
- Year-on-year, spandex (+21.09%), acrylonitrile (+19.42%), and cotton (+17.58%) remain high, but short-term momentum is diverging.
- Raw silk fell 10.13% year-on-year, the only negative among monitored items, reflecting persistent weakness in silk consumption and substitution by alternative fibers.
This pattern of 'high-level divergence with slight overall decline' often appears when the inventory cycle shifts from active restocking to passive restocking. Upstream suppliers still hold firm on prices, but downstream buyers are turning cautious and reducing purchase volumes. If end demand fails to absorb high-cost inventories, downward price pressure will accelerate.