Polyester POY Price Divergence: Industry Signals Under Supply-Demand Game

On July 6, 2026, the domestic polyester POY (150D/48F semi-dull) market presented a notable signal: prices for the same specification product varied from 7,800 to 8,400 yuan per ton across different producers, a spread of 600 yuan. This is uncommon in the past six months and indicates a new round of game-playing along the industrial chain.

Background of Price Divergence

Specifically, Rongsheng Petrochemical quoted 7,800 yuan/ton, Zhejiang Senkai New Material quoted 7,900 yuan/ton, Zhejiang Juxing Chemical Fiber quoted 8,050 yuan/ton, while Hangzhou Kaisi Chemical Fiber and Tongkun Group quoted 8,300 and 8,400 yuan/ton respectively. Jiangsu Guowang High-Tech Fiber and Zhejiang Jiabao New Fiber were in the middle at 8,250 yuan/ton.

This divergence is no accident. Geographically, lower-quoting firms like Rongsheng (7,800 yuan) and Senkai (7,900 yuan) are both in Hangzhou, while higher-quoting Tongkun (8,400 yuan) and Kaisi (8,300 yuan) are also in the same city, suggesting intra-regional competition has shifted from pure price wars to differentiated strategies.

Cost Transmission and Inventory Pressure

As a midstream product in the chemical fiber chain, POY prices are directly influenced by upstream PTA and MEG costs, as well as downstream weaving enterprises' purchasing willingness. The current widened spread may imply two industrial logics.

First, cost control capability differences. Large integrated enterprises like Rongsheng have a complete chain from refining to spinning, enabling higher raw material self-sufficiency and lower cost floors, allowing them to offer low prices. Smaller or single-link firms with higher raw material procurement ratios face more rigid costs, forcing quotes above 8,000 yuan.

Second, inventory and shipment pace differences. During the traditional off-season for textiles, terminal orders are weak. Some firms proactively cut prices to reduce inventory and free up cash, while others with lower inventory pressure or higher profit focus maintain high quotes. This divergence actually reflects inconsistent market outlooks within the industry.

Transmission Effects on Downstream Procurement

For weaving enterprises, the price divergence presents both opportunities and risks. The opportunity lies in selective procurement to reduce raw material costs; the risk involves potential quality or supply stability issues when choosing low-price sources.

Historically, when the price spread for the same specification exceeds 500 yuan, it often signals an approaching directional choice for the market. If low-price supply volumes continue and downstream purchasing follows, the overall average may shift downward. Conversely, if high-quoting firms hold firm, it suggests strong bottom-line support, leading to possible stabilization or rebound.

Practical Suggestions

For Buyers - Prioritize monitoring price dynamics of integrated large mills, as their adjustments often serve as bellwethers. - During widened spreads, consider increasing procurement from low-price sources but request quality reports simultaneously to avoid penny-wise, pound-foolish mistakes. - Establish multi-supplier price comparison mechanisms to leverage the 600-yuan spread for segmented procurement and lower overall costs.

For Factories - Adjust pricing flexibly based on inventory and cash flow, avoiding blind following of market trends. - If inventory is high, consider proactive price cuts referencing Rongsheng's strategy to destock, but control the reduction magnitude to prevent vicious competition. - If cost rigidity is strong, focus on product differentiation (e.g., developing functional POY) to avoid pure price competition.