The polyester industrial chain is experiencing a tale of two extremes. According to publicly available industry data from July 6, PTA surged 1.48% in a single day, with a year-on-year increase of 14.90%; meanwhile, downstream polyester POY and DTY fell by 1.21% and 0.20% respectively, and acrylonitrile plunged 3.05%. This divergence between strong upstream raw materials and weak downstream finished products reflects deep-seated contradictions in the current supply-demand dynamics of the textile industry.
Upstream Raw Materials: Cost Push and Supply Contraction
The rebound in PTA is not an isolated event. Year-on-year data shows that PTA prices have risen nearly 15% compared to the same period last year, while cotton has also strengthened, with a year-on-year increase of 17.58%. The core drivers of this round of increases are twofold: first, high international crude oil prices provide cost support for polyester raw materials; second, some PTA units have entered maintenance periods, leading to a phased tightening of market supply. Notably, despite the rise in PTA prices, downstream polyester mills have not significantly increased their purchasing appetite, mostly replenishing on a need-to basis, reflecting uncertainty about future market trends.
Downstream Products: Weakening Demand and Inventory Pressure
In contrast to PTA's strength, the polyester filament yarn sector is under overall pressure. POY fell more than 1% in a single day, and DTY also failed to stabilize, indicating that the absorption capacity of the end-use weaving sector is weakening. Currently, loom operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have declined from their peaks, with some small and medium-sized weaving factories reducing production due to insufficient orders. The sharp drop in acrylonitrile is even more alarming—despite a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%, a single-day decline of over 3% suggests that market sentiment has turned pessimistic, with demand in downstream acrylic fiber and ABS resin sectors cooling significantly.
Industrial Transmission: Profit Redistribution and Inventory Game
This pattern of "rising raw materials and falling finished products" directly compresses the profit margins of intermediate processing links. Taking polyester POY as an example, the price spread with PTA is rapidly narrowing, meaning that the profitability of chip-spinning enterprises is deteriorating. For textile companies, they face a dilemma: if they purchase raw materials at current high prices, subsequent finished product prices may not cover costs; if they wait and see, they risk insufficient inventory and inability to fulfill orders. Industry data shows that polyester staple fiber only rose slightly by 0.11%, far below PTA's increase, indicating extremely limited downstream acceptance of price hikes.
Regional and Category Divergence: Cotton Spinning Relatively Stable, Chemical Fiber More Volatile
From a product structure perspective, cotton yarn prices remained stable, with 21S and 32S cotton yarn showing no fluctuations, and year-on-year increases between 6% and 7.5%, demonstrating the stability of the cotton spinning chain compared to chemical fibers. Viscose staple fiber, spandex, and other products also held steady, but spandex's year-on-year increase has exceeded 21%, the highest among all monitored varieties, indicating that the earlier upward momentum has been fully released and is now in a high-level consolidation phase. Nylon series products were all flat, with year-on-year increases between 5% and 9%, showing a relatively moderate trend.
Industry Outlook: Short-Term Adjustment Pressure Remains, Focus on Cost-Side Changes
Overall, the current textile bulk commodity market is in a tug-of-war between "strong raw materials and weak demand." Whether PTA can continue to strengthen depends on crude oil trends and the pace of restarting maintenance units; stabilization of polyester filament yarn requires a substantial recovery in terminal orders. For foreign trade enterprises, exchange rate fluctuations and changes in shipping costs are equally important. It is expected that polyester chain prices will remain volatile in the next two weeks, and companies are advised to strengthen inventory management and flexibly adjust procurement strategies.