Textile Raw Material Divergence Intensifies: PTA Leads Gains While Acrylonitrile Dives Deep, Profit Redistribution Along the Chain

The July 6 commodity price data for the textile sector sends an unmistakable signal: raw materials are undergoing sharp structural divergence. PTA jumped 1.48% in a single day, cotton edged up 0.45%, while acrylonitrile plunged 3.05%, and polyester POY fell 1.21%. The overall sector posted a daily average decline of 0.14%, yet the number of gainers and losers was exactly balanced—three each—indicating that the market is not experiencing a broad rally or selloff, but rather supply-demand dynamics playing out independently for each commodity.\n\nFor weaving and dyeing enterprises in the middle of the textile chain, this divergence means cost control is becoming more difficult. PTA, as the source of the polyester chain, posted a 1.48% daily gain backed by a 14.90% year-on-year increase, suggesting the cost pressure is not a short-term fluctuation but a structural shift. The simultaneous decline in polyester POY and DTY shows that the bargaining power of the downstream texturing and weaving sectors is weakening, with margins squeezed between rising upstream costs and falling downstream prices.\n\n## Industrial Logic Behind the Movers\n\nPTA's strength is directly linked to concentrated plant maintenance and low social inventories. Industry data shows that average PTA operating rates in the first half of 2026 hovered around 78%, nearly 5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with supply contraction being the core driver. Meanwhile, downstream polyester operating rates remained above 88%, sustaining rigid demand for PTA. The decline in polyester POY reflects weakening orders at the end market—loom utilization rates in weaving hubs such as Shengze and Changxing have fallen from their June peaks, and grey fabric inventories are building, leading to slower POY procurement.\n\nThe 3.05% single-day drop in acrylonitrile is rare among textile raw materials. Acrylonitrile is mainly used in acrylic fiber and ABS resin, and the price collapse is linked to the concentrated release of new capacity. In the second quarter of 2026, two domestic acrylonitrile plants with a combined capacity of 400,000 tons entered commercial operation, flooding the market with supply. Downstream acrylic fiber, hit by sluggish apparel consumption, operated at less than 70% capacity, and the supply-demand imbalance crushed prices.\n\n## Long-term Trends Revealed by Year-on-Year Data\n\nOn a year-on-year basis, spandex leads with a 21.09% gain, followed by acrylonitrile at 19.42% and PTA at 14.90%. Spandex's high growth is tied to sustained demand for athleisure fabrics, but a 21% annual increase is well beyond what downstream apparel brands can absorb. Some buyers are already reducing spandex content or seeking alternative elastic fibers.\n\nA notable outlier is raw silk, which fell 10.13% year-on-year—the only commodity in the sample to decline. The drop directly reflects a global contraction in silk consumption: European luxury market growth has slowed, and traditional silk-consuming countries like India and Vietnam are shifting to synthetic substitutes. Silkworm cocoon purchase prices have fallen for three consecutive quarters, dampening farmer enthusiasm in major producing regions such as Guangxi and Jiangsu.\n\n## Practical Recommendations\n\n### For Procurement Managers\n- Monitor the PTA-polyester staple fiber linkage: after PTA rose, polyester staple fiber only inched up 0.11%, indicating staple fiber mills are sacrificing margins to maintain volume. In the near term, prioritize buying polyester staple fiber over POY.\n- Acrylonitrile is in a downtrend; adopt a "small lots, frequent orders" strategy for acrylic fiber procurement to avoid building positions at the price bottom.\n- With raw silk prices persistently low, lock in long-term contracts for silk fabric procurement to take advantage of the current low-price window.\n\n### For Export Companies\n- Segment export quotations by raw material content: for products with high PTA or spandex content, shorten quote validity to 3–5 days to prevent margin erosion from dual fluctuations in raw materials and exchange rates.\n- Monitor the spread between polyester POY and PTA: the current spread has narrowed to 2,369 yuan/ton, below the historical average. If it compresses further below 2,000 yuan/ton, POY mills may cut production to support prices, triggering a rebound. In that scenario, lock in export orders early.