Domestic demand recovery and export resilience coexist, and the economic operation data of the textile industry from January to May 2026 reveals that the industry is undergoing a complex but positive adjustment period. The rebound in the growth rate of industrial added value, the increase in retail sales of chemical fiber and apparel, and the significant divergence in investment constitute the core characteristics of this stage.
Signals and Drivers of Domestic Demand Recovery
According to public data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of the textile industry's industrial added value increased by about 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with chemical fiber and apparel performing prominently. Chemical fiber output grew by over 5%, and retail sales of apparel goods rebounded to around 4%. This recovery is not comprehensive but concentrated in areas of consumption upgrades and seasonal demand release. Orders for sports functional fabrics and environmentally friendly recycled fibers have grown significantly, reflecting that end consumers' preferences for quality and sustainability are translating into actual purchasing power.
From the channel perspective, online retail maintained double-digit growth, while offline department stores remained relatively stable, but community-based store apparel sales showed a rebound. This means the recovery of domestic demand relies more on new channels and categories rather than a comprehensive recovery of traditional department stores. For fabric buyers, this means a need to more accurately match end-consumption trends rather than relying on bulk stock.
Structural Changes Behind Export Resilience
Export data is one of the most noteworthy highlights of this period. From January to May 2026, total textile and apparel exports grew by about 3% year-on-year, with exports to ASEAN and Belt and Road Initiative countries significantly outpacing traditional European and American markets. This structural shift is not a short-term phenomenon but a continuation of the industry chain restructuring over the past three years. Demand for intermediate goods from countries like Vietnam and Indonesia is strong, and Chinese textile enterprises are shifting from finished product exports to intermediate goods such as fabrics and yarns, a model more conducive to locking in long-term customer relationships.
Notably, despite ongoing global trade frictions, the export price index of Chinese textiles has remained stable, indicating progress in cost control and product value addition. Exports of chemical fiber products like polyester filament and nylon have seen both volume and price increases, reflecting the strong competitiveness of upstream raw materials in the global supply chain.
Investment Divergence: Who Is Ramping Up, Who Is Waiting
Fixed asset investment data shows clear industry divergence. Investment in the chemical fiber industry grew by over 10% year-on-year, while investment in apparel and home textiles slowed to around 2%. This divergence reflects different capacity cycles: the chemical fiber industry benefits from downstream demand recovery and R&D investment in new materials, with companies generally expanding capacity and upgrading equipment; the apparel industry faces inventory pressure and consumption uncertainty, leading to cautious investment.
Regionally, investment activity in central and western textile industrial parks is higher than in the eastern coastal areas. Spinning and weaving projects in Xinjiang, Anhui, and Henan are concentrated, reflecting the trend of industry shifting to cost and policy lowlands. For foreign trade enterprises, this means the capacity release from central and western regions over the next two years will affect the pricing power pattern of global cotton yarn and grey fabric.
Policy Environment and Industry Expectations
The State Council's "Beautiful China Construction 15th Five-Year Plan" and "Implementation of the Employment Priority Strategy 15th Five-Year Plan" provide a policy framework for the textile industry's green transformation and stable employment. Eighty industry-related standards began implementation on July 1, covering wastewater discharge, energy efficiency limits, and product carbon footprint accounting. These standards will accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity but also pressure the compliance costs of small and medium enterprises.
Regarding price expectations, fluctuations in international crude oil prices will impact chemical fiber costs in the second half of the year. If crude oil prices remain high, raw material prices for polyester and nylon may rise by 5%-8%, squeezing profit margins for downstream fabric and apparel companies. Buyers need to lock in long-term contract prices in advance and evaluate alternative raw material options.