Polyester Chain Under Pressure: Supply-Demand Game Behind FDY Price Cuts in Shaoxing

On July 7, Shaoxing Jiabao announced price cuts across its entire polyester FDY product line, ranging from 80 to 150 yuan per ton. Semi-dull FDY 75D/36F was quoted at 8,410 yuan/ton, while 150D/96F stood at 8,110 yuan/ton; bright FDY 75D/36F was priced at 8,760 yuan/ton. This move is not isolated but a typical signal of loose supply-demand dynamics in the current polyester chain.

Industrial Cluster Response: Shaoxing's Pricing Barometer

Shaoxing, as one of China's largest polyester filament production bases, often sets pricing trends for the entire industry. Jiabao's price cuts cover mainstream specifications from 75D to 300D, with uniform reductions and decisive execution, indicating strong destocking intentions. From an industrial cluster perspective, small and medium enterprises in Shaoxing typically follow leading firms, so further price declines of 50-100 yuan/ton for FDY spot are expected within the next week.

Upstream-Downstream Transmission: From FDY to Grey Fabrics

Polyester FDY is a key raw material for weaving, mainly used to produce fabrics like faux silk, peach skin, and taffeta. The price cut offers short-term benefits for downstream weaving mills—lower raw material costs directly improve processing profit margins. However, terminal garment orders have not shown significant recovery, and grey fabric inventories remain high. Weaving mills will only replenish on a need-to basis, meaning price concessions by polyester plants may not quickly translate into higher sales volumes.

Futures Market: Structural Contradictions in Sentiment Divergence

Contrary to the bearish spot market, on July 6, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's polyester staple fiber main contract (2609) closed at 6,858 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton from the previous session, with open interest increasing by 15,420 lots. The futures strength was mainly driven by stabilizing crude oil prices and capital inflows, but spot market pessimism weighed on the session. This divergence reflects the tension between expectations of improved supply-demand balances in the future and current real pressure. For buyers, the futures premium structure offers some safety margin for locking in raw material costs.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Current FDY spot prices are already at the low end of the year; purchase in batches based on actual needs to avoid overstocking amid potential further declines. - Monitor price adjustments by leading producers in Shaoxing and Xiaoshan; if a second round of cuts occurs, consider increasing procurement volumes. - Utilize the futures premium structure to hedge raw material costs for the next 1-2 months via polyester chain hedging tools.

For Exporters - Lower grey fabric export quotes by 2%-3% to win orders, but include price adjustment clauses in contracts to account for raw material fluctuations. - Monitor changes in Southeast Asian demand for polyester grey fabrics; if raw material prices continue to fall, Chinese products will gain a temporary competitive edge. - Consider signing quarterly supply agreements with upstream polyester plants to lock in preferential prices and avoid cost uncertainty from frequent adjustments.