The acrylic nitrile market in North China faced a fresh round of price adjustment in early July. On July 8, Sinopec Chemical Sales North China lowered its industrial acrylic nitrile listing price by 250 yuan per ton to 9,450 yuan per ton. This move directly pressured the spot market, signaling that circulating supply prices will follow a weakening trend. For professionals tracking the acrylic nitrile supply chain, this adjustment reflects not just a single company's strategy but also subtle shifts in regional supply-demand balance.
Although the reduction is only 2.6%, it is interpreted by the market as a tentative gesture by upstream players to offer concessions amid high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. Historically, adjustments to Sinopec's North China listing price often serve as a bellwether, and other producers are likely to follow suit. In the short term, spot prices in North China may dip to the 9,300-9,400 yuan per ton range.
Dual Pressure from Costs and Supply
In the production cost of acrylic nitrile, propylene and synthetic ammonia account for over 70%. Recently, international propylene prices have remained elevated due to volatile crude oil, while synthetic ammonia prices have stayed firm supported by natural gas prices. At current raw material costs, the ex-factory price of 9,450 yuan per ton is near the breakeven point for some plants relying on external feedstock. This suggests that Sinopec's price cut is not driven by cost reductions but rather by inventory pressure from weak downstream buying interest.
On the supply side, North China accounts for about 35% of national acrylic nitrile capacity, with Sinopec's share dominant. Since the second quarter of this year, multiple regional units have completed maintenance and resumed full operations, increasing market supply by approximately 8% quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile, imported acrylic nitrile arrivals also rebounded slightly in June, intensifying domestic competition. With supply expanding and demand stagnant, inventory accumulation has become the direct driver of price declines.
Weak Downstream Demand as Core Constraint
Major downstream sectors for acrylic nitrile include acrylic fiber, ABS resin, acrylamide, and carbon fiber. The acrylic fiber industry, impacted by sluggish textile and apparel consumption, has seen operating rates drop from 75% at the start of the year to around 62%, with some small- and medium-sized plants even experiencing intermittent shutdowns. In the ABS resin sector, slowing demand from home appliances and automotive industries has kept procurement at a bare-minimum level with little stockpiling intent.
From a transmission logic perspective, while lower acrylic nitrile prices reduce downstream production costs, weak final demand prevents these savings from translating into order growth. Finished product inventories for acrylic fiber and ABS are at historically high levels, prompting downstream firms to prioritize destocking over active replenishment. Thus, the price cut's stimulative effect on downstream demand may be limited, serving more as an upstream concession to accelerate cash flow.
Medium-Term Support Factors
Despite short-term pressure, the acrylic nitrile market is not without support. First, current prices are near the cost line for plants using external feedstock; further declines would force smaller producers to cut output or shut down, self-correcting supply. Second, the probability of a sharp drop in propylene and synthetic ammonia prices in the near term is low, providing a cost floor for acrylic nitrile.
Additionally, growing demand from the carbon fiber sector offers structural support. As domestic wind power, aerospace, and other high-end manufacturing industries increase their demand for carbon fiber, acrylic nitrile consumption in this area has maintained an average annual growth rate of over 15% in the past three years. Although this segment accounts for only about 8% of total acrylic nitrile consumption, its incremental contribution is gradually offsetting the contraction in traditional downstream markets.
Overall, the North China acrylic nitrile market will undergo a rapid destocking phase in July and August, with spot prices likely fluctuating in the 9,300-9,500 yuan per ton range. By September, as downstream seasonal restocking begins and potential maintenance schedules emerge, prices may stage a mild rebound to above 9,600 yuan per ton.