The price trajectory of polyester staple fiber is adding a new chapter to the textile raw material market. On July 8, the benchmark price stood at 7,267.80 yuan per ton, down 2.03% from the beginning of the month, while the one-year median was 7,346.6 yuan. This is not just a single-day figure but a signal that the raw material market is transitioning from a high range to a mid-to-low range, reshaping the game between upstream and downstream.
Price Center Shifts Downward, Supply-Demand Balance Tilts
Over the past 12 months, polyester staple fiber prices peaked at 8,426 yuan and bottomed at 6,267 yuan. The current price is 1,158 yuan below the peak and 1,000 yuan above the trough, sitting right at the median. But 'median' does not mean stability. The continuous weakening since late June indicates that market sentiment has shifted from wait-and-see to cautious bearishness. Industry public data shows a daily increase of only 0.06%, almost negligible, suggesting that downward momentum is fading but the bottom has yet to be confirmed.
The direct driver of this price decline is sustained supply expansion. From the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026, several new polyester staple fiber units were commissioned in China, pushing industry capacity growth above 8%. Meanwhile, terminal orders for apparel and home textiles did not recover synchronously, especially in the foreign trade market, where high overseas inventories slowed procurement. The supply-demand gap widened, and inventory pressure transmitted from mills to traders, eventually reflecting in prices.
Feedstock Costs Collapse, Intensifying Chain Transmission
Upstream raw materials for polyester staple fiber—PTA and MEG—also experienced price corrections during the same period. PTA spot prices fell about 6% from their May peak, while MEG declined more sharply, nearly 9%. The drop in feedstock costs provided room for polyester staple fiber price cuts while compressing producers' margins. For less integrated mills, current prices are near breakeven, forcing some small and medium-sized producers to consider shutdowns for maintenance.
From an industrial cluster perspective, operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang (especially Shaoxing and Xiaoshan) have dropped from 92% in April to around 85% currently. Some enterprises choose to reduce output to ease inventory pressure rather than actively lower prices, as selling below cost would create losses that are hard to recover. This means further price declines are limited in the short term, but the impetus for a rebound is equally weak.
Downstream Procurement Strategy Shifts to 'Just-in-Time'
For weaving mills, the price trend of polyester staple fiber directly impacts raw material costs and order-taking willingness. The current price is in the mid-to-low range, theoretically attractive for procurement, but downstream yarn mills generally adopt a 'buy-as-needed' strategy to avoid large inventory positions. The reason is that end orders are still dominated by short-term, urgent orders, with a low proportion of long-term contracts, making companies reluctant to lock in extended raw material cycles.
Regionally, knitting clusters in Fujian and Guangdong have relatively rigid demand for polyester staple fiber, but procurement volumes are down 5%-8% year-on-year. Some mills are shifting to recycled polyester staple fiber to reduce costs, which offers a 2%-3% price advantage, further diverting demand from virgin fiber.