In the first five months of 2026, China's total trade in wool textile raw materials and products reached $6.06 billion, up 8.16% year-on-year. But beneath the surface, imports surged 27.35% far outpacing exports, while export growth was driven not by traditional markets but by emerging ones: wool top exports to India jumped 40% and to Turkey 25%. This data reveals a complex industry picture: raw material procurement is heating up, emerging markets are grabbing orders, and mature Western markets are undergoing structural differentiation.
The Logic Behind Import Surge Imports hit $1.71 billion, up 27.35%, with cashmere raw material and product imports soaring 44.61%. This growth, well above the five-year average, reflects two parallel forces: first, domestic worsted and cashmere processing capacity is running at full load, driving procurement of high-quality Australian and South African wool; second, domestic consumer demand recovery has boosted imports of high-end cashmere fabrics and garments. In other words, factories are actively restocking while consumers upgrade demand, creating a dual resonance that has pushed the import level higher.
However, high import growth also means cost pressure is transmitting downstream. With international wool prices rising and exchange rate fluctuations, raw material costs for worsted and cashmere processors may increase by 10%-15%. For small and medium-sized spinning mills, this directly squeezes profit margins, and whether order prices can be passed downstream depends on brand and buyer acceptance.
Emerging Market Substitution Effect in Exports Exports of $4.35 billion were up 2.29%, seemingly modest, but the structural shift is noteworthy. In traditional markets, German orders held steady, while exports to Vietnam and Italy fell in volume but rose in value, indicating higher unit prices. More critically, emerging markets exploded: India led with $76 million in imports, followed by Turkey at $41.46 million, with wool top as the main driver.
This means India and Turkey are accelerating their absorption of global textile manufacturing transfer, expanding demand for intermediate goods like wool top. China, as the world's largest wool top supplier, directly benefits from this capacity spillover. Wool top exports reached 13,300 tons worth $178 million, up 21.68%, confirming the upstream processing link's competitive advantage remains solid.
Category Divergence and Price Signals Among sub-categories, wool product exports grew 5.11%, cashmere products 6.97%, with yarn and knitted sweaters seeing stable overseas demand. But notably, wool top export growth (21.68%) far outpaced finished products, suggesting overseas processing expansion is faster than end-consumer recovery. This could mean intermediate goods exports continue to strengthen in H2, while finished product growth may be constrained by Western retail inventory cycles.
In cashmere, the 44.61% import surge far exceeds exports, indicating domestic high-end cashmere fabric and garment consumption upgrading is accelerating, but also that domestic self-sufficiency in the high-end segment still has room to grow. For domestic cashmere firms, this is a clear signal: instead of price wars in low-end export markets, invest more in R&D for high-end fabrics and garments to capture import substitution dividends.
H2 Outlook and Risk Points With the autumn-winter overseas procurement season approaching, wool exports are likely to maintain resilience, while raw material imports will probably stay high. But two risks deserve attention: first, if international wool prices continue rising, small firms may curb procurement, slowing import growth in H2; second, consumer confidence volatility in Western markets could disrupt finished order landing schedules.
From an industry cluster perspective, cashmere processing hubs like Qinghe in Hebei and Puyuan in Zhejiang are near full capacity, while worsted firms in Jiangsu and Shandong are accelerating technical upgrades and capacity expansion. The industry's shift toward high-end, differentiated products is clear, but cost control and supply chain efficiency remain key to navigating the cycle.