The polyester filament yarn industry is undergoing a deep adjustment from supply-demand imbalance to rebalancing. Xinfengming's H1 2026 profit forecast shows net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.38-1.5 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, with recurring profit growth hitting 140%. This figure is not an isolated financial highlight but a signal of the entire polyester chemical fiber chain's recovery.
Synchronized Improvement on Both Sides
The core driver of the profit surge is proactive supply contraction. In late 2025, leading domestic chemical fiber companies reached a voluntary production reduction consensus, cutting operating rates for mainstream products like POY and FDY. Years of disorderly expansion had led to severe overcapacity and price wars. The reduction agreement directly eased supply pressure. Coupled with tightened approval of new capacity under dual-carbon policies and the accelerated exit of outdated capacity, supply achieved orderly contraction.
Demand also provided strong support. The domestic garment wholesale market advanced its seasonal transition, with stable release of autumn/winter fabric orders and restocking demand from weaving mills. Overseas, Southeast Asian and European/American brands increased their fabric purchases from China, maintaining external demand resilience. The price spread between upstream and downstream products widened accordingly, boosting gross margins. With international oil prices stabilizing in Q2, the risk of raw material cost fluctuations weakened, further highlighting the advantages of integrated industry chain layout for leading companies.
Industry Structure Reshaping Accelerates
Xinfengming's performance explosion is not an isolated case but a landmark event of increasing industry concentration. Relying on their own PTA and spinning integrated capacity, leading companies can effectively hedge against raw material price fluctuations, while smaller factories lack this risk resistance. With the entire chain's inventory remaining low and the peak season approaching in Q3, downstream weaving mills may restock intensively, extending the profitability cycle for the chemical fiber industry.
In the long term, the acceleration of Chinese textile and apparel brands going global, along with growing demand for functional fabrics and recycled polyester products, will continue. Leading companies have already increased investment in green, low-carbon spinning processes and differentiated high-end filament products, optimizing product mix. This means the industry will accelerate the elimination of small, inefficient capacity, with market share continuously concentrating towards integrated, large-scale leaders.
