Acrylonitrile Price Dips Below 10,000 Yuan/Ton, Reshaping Cost Logic in Chemical Fiber Chain

Acrylonitrile prices are undergoing a notable decline. According to publicly available industry data, the benchmark price stood at 9,533.33 yuan per ton on July 8, 2026, down 5.92% from 10,133.33 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month. This level sits at the midpoint of the one-year range—low of 7,000 yuan/ton, high of 11,766.67 yuan/ton, with an annual average of 8,668.67 yuan/ton. The current price still has 2,533.33 yuan of room before hitting the historical low, suggesting that the market has not yet bottomed out and downward pressure persists.

Supply-Demand Structure Loosens, Price Center Shifts Downward

The current decline is not a sudden event. Over the past year, the price fluctuation range reached 4,766.67 yuan/ton, with a median of 9,383.34 yuan/ton. The zero daily change indicates the market is at a critical juncture. The primary driver is the supply side: multiple domestic acrylonitrile units came online between 2025 and 2026, with capacity release outpacing downstream demand growth. Meanwhile, the cost of raw propylene remains low, further weakening cost support. These factors have driven prices down 18.9% from last year's peak of 11,766.67 yuan/ton.

It is noteworthy that the current price still carries a roughly 10% premium over the annual average of 8,668.67 yuan/ton. If supply-demand imbalances continue to worsen, prices could regress toward or even fall below the average. Historical data shows strong support around 7,000 yuan/ton, but there is still 2,533.33 yuan of downside from current levels.

Downstream Industrial Clusters Under Pressure, Cost Transmission Begins

Acrylonitrile is a key raw material for acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and acrylamide. The impact on downstream sectors is mixed. For acrylic fiber producers, lower raw material costs directly improve profit margins. In major production areas such as Zhejiang and Jiangsu, procurement costs have dropped by about 600 yuan/ton compared to the start of the month, potentially boosting margins by 6-12 percentage points for an industry with typical gross margins of 5%-10%. However, downstream spinning and weaving segments may not fully benefit, as end-demand for acrylic fiber in apparel markets remains sluggish.

The ABS resin industry faces different challenges. As the second-largest consumer of acrylonitrile, ABS prices are closely linked to its raw material costs. While lower feedstock costs ease pressure on ABS producers, weak demand recovery in end-use sectors like home appliances and automobiles has kept ABS inventories high. Cost reductions primarily serve to stem losses rather than drive profit expansion.

For the acrylamide chain, falling acrylonitrile prices are a clear positive. Downstream sectors such as water treatment and oil extraction have relatively rigid demand, allowing cost transmission to proceed smoothly. Industry data indicates that for every 1,000 yuan/ton drop in acrylonitrile, acrylamide production costs decrease by about 700 yuan/ton.

Procurement Window Assessment and Risk Hedging

The current price level offers a noteworthy procurement window for downstream users. However, annual data suggests prices have not yet reached the bottom, making aggressive buying risky.

For Buyers - Adopt phased purchasing: Given the mid-range price, buy in 2-4 week batches to avoid large one-time positions. If prices fall below 9,000 yuan/ton, consider increasing purchase volumes to lock in lower costs. - Monitor inventory cycles: Producer inventories have risen for three consecutive weeks. Accelerated stockpiling could trigger faster price declines. Track weekly operating rates and port inventory data. - Utilize forward contracts: Large users consuming over 500 tons per month should consider 3-6 month forward contracts with suppliers to lock in prices between 9,000 and 9,500 yuan/ton.

For Exporters - Adjust pricing mechanisms: For exported acrylic fiber and ABS products, shift the raw material price adjustment clause from monthly to quarterly revisions to avoid passive overpricing due to rapid domestic price declines. - Monitor exchange rate linkages: International acrylonitrile prices are denominated in USD. With current RMB exchange rate volatility, a depreciating RMB could raise import costs, narrowing the spread between domestic and international prices and affecting export competitiveness. Hedge forward exchange rates simultaneously. - Explore emerging markets: Demand growth for acrylonitrile downstream products in Southeast Asia and the Middle East outpaces global averages. During this cost-advantage window, prioritize expanding acrylic yarn and ABS pipe categories into these regions.