The near-doubled profit forecast of Xinfengming, a leading polyester filament producer, has injected strong confidence into the polyester chemical fiber industry. The company's 2026 semi-annual performance preview shows net profit attributable to shareholders is expected between 1.38 billion and 1.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.59% to 111.51%, with non-recurring profit growth reaching nearly 140%. This data not only exceeds market expectations but also confirms a fundamental shift in the industry's supply-demand dynamics.
Supply-Demand Turning Point
The core driver of the performance boom is the voluntary contraction on the supply side. In recent years, the polyester filament industry experienced a wave of disorderly capacity expansion, leading to overcapacity and frequent price wars that severely squeezed corporate profits. The turning point came at the end of 2025, when major domestic chemical fiber companies reached a consensus on voluntary production cuts, actively reducing operating rates for mainstream products like POY and FDY. Combined with tightened approval for new capacity under dual-carbon policies and the accelerated phase-out of outdated capacity, the supply side achieved effective clearance.
Demand side also provided solid support. The seasonal shift in domestic garment wholesale markets came earlier, with autumn and winter fabric orders being steadily released, and downstream weaving factories showing willingness to replenish inventory. Meanwhile, overseas apparel procurement orders continue to recover, with Southeast Asian and European and American brands increasing their purchases of Chinese fabrics. This dual drive from domestic and international demand has widened the price spread between upstream and downstream products, boosting corporate gross margins. The stabilization of international crude oil prices in the second quarter also weakened the risk of volatility in chemical fiber raw material costs, further highlighting the cost advantage of integrated leaders.
Industrial Chain Transmission Effect
Xinfengming's performance is not an isolated case; it reflects the cyclical recovery of the entire polyester chemical fiber industrial chain. Securities analysts point out that the company's second-quarter single-quarter profit hit a record high, benefiting from its own PTA and spinning integrated layout, which effectively hedges against raw material price fluctuations. Additionally, its overseas production base in Egypt is progressing steadily, and its global layout helps diversify single-market risks. Currently, inventory across the entire chain remains low. With the traditional peak season for apparel in the third quarter approaching, downstream weaving factories may engage in concentrated replenishment, and the profit cycle for the chemical fiber industry is expected to continue.
From a long-term industry perspective, the acceleration of domestic textile and apparel brands going global, coupled with the expanding demand for functional fabrics and recycled polyester products, is driving the trend. Leading chemical fiber companies are actively deploying green and low-carbon spinning technologies, and the proportion of differentiated high-end filament products is increasing. This performance surge further confirms the recovery of the upstream textile supply chain, accelerating the elimination of small and inefficient capacity, with market share continuing to concentrate toward integrated, large-scale leaders.