Acrylonitrile prices showed a clear decline in early July. According to publicly available industry data, the benchmark price on July 8 stood at 9,533.33 yuan per ton, a drop of 5.92% from 10,133.33 yuan at the beginning of the month. Although the daily price was flat compared to the previous trading day, this monthly decline has already caught the attention of downstream buyers.
Looking at a longer time frame, the current price sits at the midpoint of the yearly range—over the past 12 months, acrylonitrile hit a low of 7,000 yuan per ton and a high of 11,766.67 yuan per ton, with an annual average of approximately 8,668.67 yuan per ton. This means that while the current price has not yet reached extreme lows, it is significantly below the year's peak and about 10% above the average, leaving room for further downside.
Industrial Logic Behind the Price Decline
The weakening of acrylonitrile prices is directly linked to reduced support from upstream raw material costs. Prices for key raw materials such as propylene and ammonia have been soft recently, coupled with the recovery of production capacity after the end of maintenance season at some acrylonitrile plants, leading to accumulating supply-side pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand has not expanded synchronously, with procurement pace slowing in major consumption sectors like acrylic fiber and ABS resin during the traditional off-season.
This "increasing supply, stable demand" scenario means that acrylonitrile prices may continue to face downward pressure in the short term. For downstream companies, this implies potential short-term benefits from lower raw material procurement costs, but also the risk of inventory write-downs if prices fall further.
Industrial Chain Transmission and Regional Reactions
Fluctuations in acrylonitrile prices first transmit to the acrylic fiber and carbon fiber chains. In regions like Zhejiang and Jiangsu in East China, where acrylic fiber production is concentrated, companies have recently reassessed their raw material procurement pace. Some factories have opted to shorten raw material inventory cycles to avoid losses from further price declines. In the carbon fiber sector, where acrylonitrile is a core raw material, lower prices are undoubtedly a positive signal for domestic carbon fiber companies currently expanding capacity.
Additionally, the ABS resin market is also feeling the pressure. As one of the three main monomers for ABS resin, a decline in acrylonitrile helps reduce ABS production costs, which may eventually pass through to downstream industries such as home appliances and automotive. However, this transmission is not instantaneous and typically requires a 2-to-4-week inventory digestion period.
Impact on Procurement and Trade Strategies
The current price level means different operational spaces for companies of varying sizes and inventory statuses.
For Procurement Teams - Adopt a "small batch, multiple orders" strategy to avoid large one-time inventory builds during a price downtrend. - Consider using futures or forward contracts to lock in relatively low raw material costs and hedge against potential price rebounds. - Closely monitor operating rates in major acrylonitrile production regions (e.g., Shandong, Jiangsu) and new capacity launch plans to anticipate supply changes.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Clearly define mechanisms for sharing raw material price fluctuations in international quotations to avoid passively compressing export margins due to domestic price drops. - Leverage current price advantages to secure new orders in key export destinations like Southeast Asia and the Middle East, expanding market share. - Keep an eye on RMB exchange rate trends and shipping cost changes to comprehensively assess export costs and prevent single-factor distortions in pricing.
Overall, the early July decline in acrylonitrile prices results from a combination of raw material costs, supply-demand balance, and seasonal factors. Downstream companies should view this change rationally, seizing short-term benefits from cost reductions while preparing for potential rebounds or prolonged weakness.