On July 8, 2026, polyester FDY (150D/96F) prices in China showed notable regional divergence, with quotes ranging from 8,110 to 8,450 yuan/ton across key production bases in Zhejiang province, easing from earlier Q2 highs. This price signal is sending a clear message to the entire polyester supply chain: the balance of power is shifting toward buyers.
Behind the Price Divergence
Public quotes reveal a price gap of up to 340 yuan/ton between the lowest offer (8,110 yuan/ton from Zhejiang Jiabao New Fiber) and the highest (8,450 yuan/ton from Tongkun Group). This spread reflects differing inventory pressures, sales strategies, and capacity utilization rates among producers. Companies in Shaoxing, such as Jiabao and Juxing Chemical Fiber, adopted more conservative pricing, signaling stronger destocking intentions.
The price gradient between smaller players and industry leaders suggests that in an oversupplied market, some mills are aggressively cutting prices to secure orders, while top companies leverage brand premiums and customer loyalty to maintain higher levels.
Capacity Expansion vs. Weak Demand
The price weakness stems from sustained supply-side expansion. From 2024 to 2026, China's polyester capacity entered a new wave of intensive commissioning, with over 3 million tons of new capacity added in the first half of 2026 alone, mostly in Zhejiang and Jiangsu. The companies quoted in this report are key participants in this expansion.
However, downstream demand recovery has failed to keep pace. Global economic weakness, shifting overseas orders, and a sluggish textile and apparel market have kept both domestic and export demand subdued. Entering Q3 2026, the traditional off-season combined with potential summer power curbs has kept weaving mill operating rates at 60-70%, with mills purchasing on a hand-to-mouth basis and showing little speculative buying.
This oversupply is reflected in inventory data. As of early July, average polyester filament yarn inventories had risen to over 25 days, with some mills exceeding 30 days—well above the 15-day safety threshold. Inventory pressure is forcing price cuts, leading to the observed price divergence.
Transmission Effects Along the Chain
Lower FDY prices weaken cost support for upstream PTA and MEG markets. PTA has fallen to around 5,800 yuan/ton, and MEG hovers near 4,100 yuan/ton, squeezing margins across the polyester chain. For downstream weavers, lower raw material costs are theoretically positive, but weak order books mean they are adopting a 'buy-as-needed' approach rather than building inventories.
Looking ahead, this price adjustment may mark a shift from a 'high-margin, high-utilization' phase to a 'low-margin, destocking' phase for the polyester industry. Export-oriented mills face additional headwinds from currency fluctuations and anti-dumping risks (e.g., EU investigations into polyester filament yarn).