The polyester chemical fiber industry is experiencing a landmark profit recovery. Xinfengming's first-half 2026 performance forecast shows net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 1.38 billion to 1.5 billion yuan, nearly doubling year-on-year, with the highest non-recurring profit growth approaching 140%. This data not only marks a turning point for the leading enterprise but also reflects deeper changes in the supply pattern of the entire polyester filament chain.
Supply Side: Dual Tightening from Voluntary Cuts and Policy Constraints
The direct driver of the performance surge comes from proactive adjustments on the supply side. In recent years, the polyester filament industry has seen continuous capacity expansion, leading to overcapacity and frequent price wars, severely squeezing corporate profit margins. At the end of 2025, leading domestic chemical fiber companies reached a voluntary production cut consensus, actively reducing operating rates for mainstream products such as POY and FDY, effectively alleviating supply pressure.
Simultaneously, dual-carbon policies have tightened approval for new capacity, accelerating the exit of outdated and inefficient capacity. The orderly contraction on the supply side has created conditions for repairing the industry's price system. The price spread between upstream and downstream products has gradually widened, pushing up gross margins.
Demand Side: Dual Support from Domestic Seasonality and Overseas Restocking
On the demand side, domestic and international markets are resonating. The seasonal rhythm of domestic garment wholesale markets has advanced, with autumn and winter fabric orders being released steadily, driving restocking demand from weaving mills. Overseas, brands in Southeast Asia and Europe have increased their procurement of Chinese fabrics, maintaining the resilience of downstream polyester demand.
In the second quarter, international crude oil prices stabilized, reducing the risk of cost fluctuations for chemical fiber raw materials, further solidifying the profitability base of leading enterprises. Leveraging its own PTA and spinning integrated chain, Xinfengming has a clear cost advantage, effectively hedging against raw material price volatility.
Industry Trend: Market Share Concentrates on Leaders, Differentiated Products Become Growth Point
From a longer-term perspective, this performance surge signals an acceleration of industry consolidation. Small and medium-sized enterprises, burdened by high costs and product homogeneity, face greater survival pressure amid supply tightening and demand structure upgrades. Market share is accelerating towards leading enterprises with integrated and scale advantages.
The share of differentiated high-end filament products is rising, with demand for functional fabrics and recycled polyester products expanding, prompting leading companies to continuously invest in green and low-carbon spinning processes. Overseas market expansion is also advancing, with Xinfengming's Egypt production base progressing steadily, helping to diversify single-market risks.
Currently, the entire industry chain inventory remains low. As the traditional peak season for apparel in the third quarter approaches, downstream weaving mills may engage in concentrated restocking, potentially extending the industry's profit cycle. Securities analysts believe that the second quarter's single-quarter profit has set a historical high, clearly indicating a sustained recovery in industry prosperity.