Brent crude oil has climbed back above $78 per barrel, and polyester chain futures opened as top performers in China's chemical sector today. This move is not driven by a sudden surge in demand, but by a geopolitical event that has torn open supply expectations—the US launched a new round of military strikes against Iran, directly reigniting market fears of further tightening in Middle East crude supply.
Event Background
Over the past few weeks, the chemical market had already fully priced in the potential recovery of Iranian supply. Industry data shows that Iran's crude oil exports averaged around 1.5 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025. If sanctions were eased, the market generally expected this figure could quickly rise to over 2 million barrels per day. This expectation had previously suppressed the price center of polyester raw materials like PTA and MEG.
However, the US military action has, at least in the short term, significantly pushed back the narrative of supply recovery. The market is now repricing: if supply falls short of expectations or even contracts further, previously suppressed futures are likely to see a phase rebound. The rise in international oil prices overnight is an immediate reaction to this logic.
From an industrial chain perspective, crude oil prices are the anchor for polyester raw material pricing. Both PTA and MEG have naphtha or crude oil as upstream inputs. For every $1 per barrel increase in crude oil, the theoretical production cost of PTA rises by about 35-40 RMB per ton. For downstream polyester plants, this means a new round of upward cost pressure.
Industry Impact
For the textile industry, fluctuations in the polyester chain are never isolated futures events. China Customs data shows that from January to May 2025, the export volume of polyester filament yarn increased by about 8% year-on-year, but the average export price fell by about 3% year-on-year, indicating that terminal demand is acceptable but profit margins are being squeezed. This raw material price increase will directly compress the processing profits of polyester plants, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises without hedging capabilities.
From a procurement rhythm perspective, downstream weaving enterprises had generally maintained low raw material inventory strategies, waiting for prices to fall after supply recovery. However, the resurgence of geopolitical risks may force some companies to replenish inventories to prevent further cost increases. Traders in major polyester clusters such as Shengze and Changxing report that inquiry volumes have risen significantly today, but actual transactions remain cautious as the market observes whether the conflict will escalate further.
For home textile and apparel fabric buyers, the short-term cost transmission has a time lag. Polyester plants typically hold 3-7 days of raw material inventory, so fabric prices will not immediately follow the rise. However, if crude oil remains high for more than two weeks, the ex-factory prices of polyester filament and staple fiber are likely to increase by 200-400 RMB per ton. At that point, cost pressures in the greige fabric and dyeing & finishing stages will gradually become apparent.