The benchmark price of nylon POY hovers near its one-year median, a seemingly calm surface masking the tension of profit redistribution across the supply chain. According to industry public data, on July 9, the price settled at 13,625 yuan/ton, down just 18 points from the start of the month, a decline of 0.18%. Yet this price is 500 yuan below the one-year median of 14,125 yuan, suggesting the market has not truly stabilized.
Shifting Price Center
From an annual perspective, nylon POY has traced a wide oscillation curve over the past 12 months: a low of 11,300 yuan and a high of 16,950 yuan, a range of 5,650 yuan. The current price of 13,625 yuan sits in the lower part of the median band—neither bottom nor top—but 'median' does not imply safety. It signals the market is searching for a new equilibrium.
The bottom gap of 2,325 yuan and top gap of -3,325 yuan reveal price elasticity: upward resistance is far greater than downward space. For downstream weaving and texturing mills, this means raw material costs are unlikely to trend upward in the short term, but downside risk has not fully dissipated.
Supply-Demand Tug-of-War
The median-range volatility of nylon POY stems from a dual squeeze: ample supply of upstream caprolactam and weak downstream textile demand. Caprolactam capacity continues to expand, weakening cost support for nylon chips; meanwhile, order recovery in end-use apparel and home textiles has been disappointing, leading to hand-to-mouth purchasing and low speculative hoarding.
Regionally, nylon clusters in Changle, Fujian, and Yiwu, Zhejiang, are operating at around 70% capacity, with some small and medium mills cutting production to defend prices. This 'passive destocking' state is unlikely to push prices out of the median range in the short term.
Price Outlook and Procurement Strategy
For buyers, the current price is in a moderately low position—neither a bargain nor a reason to panic buy. Key variables to watch:
- International crude oil price fluctuations and their pass-through to caprolactam costs; if crude falls below $70, nylon POY could test 12,000 yuan.
- The pace of 'Double 11' and winter apparel restocking orders in H2; a demand surge could briefly lift prices to 14,500 yuan.
For Buyers - Maintain 2-3 weeks of safety stock to avoid forced replenishment during sudden orders. - Monitor the spread between caprolactam futures and spot; if it narrows to under 200 yuan, consider increasing POY purchases.
For Weaving Mills - Prioritize short-cycle, quick-turn orders to reduce long-term price lock-in risk; use current median prices to lock partial raw material costs. - Negotiate floating-price agreements with nylon chip suppliers to partially transfer volatility risk.
The median-range oscillation of nylon POY is essentially a compromise between overcapacity and weak demand. For industry participants, abandoning trend fantasies and focusing on inventory management is the rational choice for the next three months.