Cotton yarn prices are approaching their highest level in the past 12 months. As of July 9, 2026, the benchmark price of cotton yarn 21S stood at 23,466.67 CNY/ton, representing a cumulative increase of 7.8% from the year's low of 21,766.67 CNY/ton. This figure not only signifies a substantial rise in raw material costs but also foreshadows a wave of cost pressure transmission along the textile supply chain.
Price Movement Characteristics From the perspective of the annual statistical range, the current price is at a historical high. Over the past year, the price of cotton yarn 21S hit a low of 21,766.67 CNY/ton, a high of 23,466.67 CNY/ton, with a median of 22,616.67 CNY/ton. The current price is just a step away from the peak, with a bottom difference of 1,700 CNY/ton, indicating a steep upward channel.
More notably, the price has triggered a "two-year overbought" warning signal within the annual cycle. This suggests that the current level has deviated significantly from the average operating track of the past two years and is not a normal seasonal fluctuation. Given the average price of 22,424.04 CNY/ton, the current price is about 4.7% higher, exceeding the normal fluctuation range.
Cost Transmission and Downstream Pressure Cotton yarn 21S is the most commonly used medium-count yarn variety in the textile industry, widely applied in woven and knitted fabric production. Its price changes directly affect grey fabrics, dyed fabrics, and final garment costs. Industry experience shows that yarn costs account for 60% to 70% of fabric production costs. Once raw material prices rise by more than 5%, downstream profit margins are significantly squeezed.
For fabric buyers, the current price signal implies two key judgments: first, the likelihood of a near-term price correction is low, as prices are already at high levels with no clear downward drivers; second, if upstream cotton supply remains tight, prices may break higher, forming a new price center.