Cost-Push Accelerates: Jiangsu Polyester Staple Fiber Spot Prices Break Through 7300 Yuan/Ton

On July 9, the Jiangsu polyester staple fiber (PSF) spot market sent a clear price signal: mainstream quotes rose 50 yuan in a single day, firmly holding at the 7,330 yuan per ton mark. The negotiation range simultaneously moved up to 7,280-7,400 yuan, while lower-end deals were still transacted near 7,100 yuan. This divergence reveals the delicate balance between cost-driven upward pressure and downstream demand absorption capacity.

Cost-Side Strong Push

The direct driver of this price increase is the rise in upstream raw material costs. PTA and MEG, the core raw materials for PSF, have been strengthening recently against the backdrop of crude oil price fluctuations and tight PX supply. Public industry data shows that PTA spot prices have cumulatively risen by over 200 yuan per ton since early July, directly squeezing the processing profit margins of PSF producers. Manufacturers were forced to follow the upward trend to maintain basic cash flow.

It is noteworthy that a 50-yuan single-day increase is not aggressive in the PSF spot market, but the fact that the upper end of the negotiation range has touched 7,400 yuan indicates strong seller willingness to support prices. The lower-priced transactions near 7,100 yuan mostly came from small and medium-sized traders under financial pressure, and the clearance of this inventory actually clears the path for further price increases.

Dilemma for Downstream Weaving Mills

For the large number of weaving mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang that use PSF as raw material, the rapid rise in raw material prices means an immediate increase in production costs. The end-order volume for grey fabrics and finished textiles has not shown a synchronous increase, indicating a clear time lag in price transmission. This means that the profit compression caused by the PSF price hike will be absorbed by the weaving mills in the short term.

Feedback from industrial clusters such as Shengze and Nantong indicates that small and medium-sized weaving mills have begun to adjust their purchasing pace. Some have reduced their raw material inventory days from the previous 7-10 days to 5-7 days to cope with price volatility risk. While this 'hand-to-mouth' strategy reduces inventory depreciation risk, it also leaves these mills with little bargaining power during rapid price increases.

Short-Term Price Outlook and Operational Logic

Considering the cost-side trend and industry chain inventory structure, the Textile Circle editorial team judges that Jiangsu PSF spot prices will find strong support in the 7,300-7,400 yuan range. If upstream PTA prices remain strong, PSF may further test the 7,500 yuan level. However, one must be cautious: if end-user demand remains weak, it could trigger a concentrated sell-off by traders, leading to a rapid price correction.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Current prices are in a cost-driven rising phase. It is recommended to appropriately increase safety stock by 7-10 days to avoid supply disruption risks due to sudden price surges. - Monitor PTA futures price trends. If PTA sees consecutive days of decline for more than two days, consider pausing purchases and waiting for prices to stabilize before restocking. - When signing short-term supply agreements with suppliers, try to lock in prices within a range near 7,300 yuan per ton to hedge against subsequent volatility.

For Export Enterprises - Export order quotation cycles are typically 30-45 days. It is recommended to include a raw material price linkage mechanism in contract terms, stipulating renegotiation when PSF spot price fluctuations exceed ±3%. - If current orders heavily rely on PSF as the main raw material, consider hedging by purchasing call options on PTA or PSF futures to lock in raw material costs. - Monitor the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on imported raw material costs. A strengthening USD may further raise the import price of PTA, indirectly supporting domestic PSF prices.