The morning close of the domestic futures market on July 9 revealed a rare bipolar pattern in the textile raw material sector. The polyester industrial chain saw all varieties in the green: staple fiber's main contract rose 0.77% to 7,082 points; PTA's main contract rose 1.18% to 5,680 points; and bottle-grade chip's main contract posted the largest gain of 1.48% to 6,874 points. On the other side, cotton's main contract tumbled 2.24% to 15,930 points, while cotton yarn's main contract fell 1.57% to 22,315 points. This intra-sector divergence is not random market noise but a direct reflection of fundamental splits.
Polyester Complex: Cost Support and Short-Term Supply-Demand Improvement
The collective strength of the polyester chain first benefits from the firmness of upstream raw materials. PTA, as the core feedstock for staple fiber and bottle-grade chips, outperformed downstream products, suggesting cost-push is a primary driver. Industry public data shows recent concentrated PTA plant maintenance has tightened spot supply. Combined with high PX prices, PTA processing margins have been compressed to low levels, creating a strong market expectation for recovery.
Staple fiber benefited from phased downstream restocking. Although overall textile and apparel orders are tepid, some weaving enterprises increased purchases at lower price levels last week, boosting staple fiber sales-to-output ratios above 80% and reducing factory inventories from earlier highs. Bottle-grade chip strength is more from export order support—overseas heatwaves driving beverage packaging demand, with domestic export offers rising consecutively and the domestic market following.
However, the sustainability of this uptrend is questionable. End demand for the polyester chain has not materially improved. Weaving operating rates remain at a low 65% level, and new orders are mostly short-term and small. If PTA plant maintenance ends and supply recovers, the cost support weakens, and polyester varieties could face a correction.
Cotton Complex: Dual Pressure from High Inventories and Weak Consumption
The simultaneous sharp decline in cotton and cotton yarn is a direct response to intensifying supply-demand imbalances. Data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System shows that as of end-June, national commercial cotton inventories were nearly 300,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Downstream textile mills also hold over 30 days of cotton inventory, showing extremely low restocking willingness.
More critical is the demand side. Cotton yarn fell less than cotton, indicating spinning mills are compressing processing margins to absorb raw material price pressure. But end orders remain weak. Domestic apparel retail sales growth has slowed for three consecutive months. On exports, while shipments to ASEAN and Belt and Road countries grew, traditional European and American market demand shrank significantly, putting pressure on unit export prices of cotton-made garments and home textiles.
The lingering Xinjiang cotton issue continues to suppress downstream buying enthusiasm. Some international brands remain cautious about Xinjiang cotton materials, forcing domestic cotton textile mills to increase procurement costs for non-Xinjiang cotton, further squeezing profit margins.
Deeper Logic Behind the Divergence: Profit Reallocation Along the Chain
The divergence between staple fiber and cotton/cotton yarn essentially reflects profit reallocation across different links. In the polyester chain, upstream PX and PTA, with higher industry concentration, dominate pricing negotiations and can pass cost pressure downstream. In the cotton chain, upstream ginners and traders hold high inventories, weakening their bargaining power. Downstream weavers and garment factories, facing weak end demand, refuse to accept high prices, concentrating price pressure on intermediate links.
This divergence carries clear signals for buyers and exporters. For chemical fiber raw materials, the current price rebound may be a phase opportunity—do not chase highs. For cotton materials, the price decline has not yet reached cost levels, leaving room for further downside.