13,625 RMB/ton — that was the benchmark price for nylon POY on July 9, 2026, down just 0.18% from the start of the month. But placed against the annual coordinates, this figure signals far more complexity than the simple decline suggests.
The Logic Behind the Price Signal
According to publicly available industry data, from July 9, 2025 to July 9, 2026, nylon POY prices traded in a range of 11,300 to 16,950 RMB/ton. The current price of 13,625 RMB/ton sits just below the median of 14,125 RMB/ton — neither extremely low nor strong. More notably, it has fallen 3,325 RMB/ton from the historical peak of 16,950 RMB/ton, a decline of nearly 20%, while still having 2,325 RMB/ton of upside room from the low of 11,300 RMB/ton.
This 'neither high nor low' state reveals the core contradiction in today's chemical fiber market: upstream raw material costs such as caprolactam have eased somewhat, but the pass-through to nylon POY has not been synchronized; downstream weaving mills are cautious in purchasing, significantly shortening their stocking cycles. The combination has left nylon POY prices in a stalemate.
The Transmission Dilemma Across the Chain
On the cost side, the price of caprolactam, the main raw material for nylon POY, showed narrow fluctuations in Q2 without a clear downtrend. However, nylon POY producers, under inventory pressure, had to offer discounts to move goods, meaning profit margins were significantly compressed. Industry data shows the spread between nylon POY and caprolactam has narrowed to recent lows, with some small and medium polymerization units nearing breakeven.
On the demand side, operating rates in downstream nylon filament weaving and warp knitting sectors hovered around 70%, slightly lower year-on-year. The end-use apparel market's procurement of nylon fabrics is largely need-based, with speculative stockpiling nearly absent. This 'buy-as-needed' mentality has slowed inventory transfer from mills to traders, causing social inventory levels to rise continuously.
The Game Between Capacity Cycle and Price Expectations
Notably, during the 2025-2026 period, domestic nylon POY capacity additions amounted to approximately 300,000 tons, concentrated in industrial clusters like Fujian and Jiangsu. While new capacity should ideally bring economies of scale, against the backdrop of slowing demand growth, it has instead exacerbated oversupply expectations.
Looking at the annual price statistics, the current 13,625 RMB/ton is in the lower-middle part of the range, but the average of 12,809.43 RMB/ton indicates that the average transaction price over the past year was even lower. This suggests that if demand does not rebound unexpectedly in Q3, the price is more likely to regress towards the mean.