The latest monitoring data from the Circulation Branch of the China National Textile and Apparel Council reveals a clear divergence in the national textile and apparel specialty market sentiment index for June 2026. The manager sentiment index stood at 49.78, up 0.43 percentage points month-on-month, while the merchant sentiment index barely increased by 0.34 percentage points to 50.07. This data highlights a significant temperature difference between different market participants during the recovery: market-side indicators like foot traffic and store opening rates show positive signals, but merchants continue to struggle with profitability and pricing.
Market Side: Foot Traffic Recovers, Operating Environment Improves
From the manager's perspective, the overall market operation in June improved compared to May. The foot traffic index and logistics shipment volume index both rose by 0.64 percentage points month-on-month, and the store opening rate index increased by 0.32 percentage points. Notably, 77.42% of specialty markets reported stable total operating volume and logistics shipments compared to the previous month, indicating overall stability without significant fluctuations. The rental index rose to 50.65, suggesting stable leasing conditions.
The operating environment index fell 1.61 percentage points to 51.94 month-on-month but remained above the boom-or-bust line, indicating that market managers still hold a positive view of the overall business climate. This pattern of 'stable totals with structural improvement' suggests the market is slowly recovering from the bottom but has not yet entered a strong growth phase.
Merchant Side: Profit and Price Pressures, Rising Costs
In contrast to the moderate market recovery, merchant data reveals more underlying concerns. The June sales volume index rose to 50.14, up 1.03 percentage points, indicating increased sales quantities. However, the average selling price index was only 49.30, down 0.22 percentage points, and the profitability index was 49.86, up 0.89 percentage points but still below the threshold.
This indicates merchants are struggling in a 'volume up, price down' scenario. 19.58% of merchants reported decreased profits, up 8.62 percentage points from the previous month; 18.88% reported lower selling prices, up 12.03 percentage points. Meanwhile, the comprehensive cost index fell 0.19 percentage points to 50.63, meaning cost pressures are rising. 6.99% of merchants reported increased operating costs, up 6.99 percentage points month-on-month. The inventory index rose to 50.00, offering slight relief, but overall, merchant profit margins are being squeezed.
E-commerce as a Stabilizer: Online Penetration Deepens
Amid offline channel pressures, e-commerce sales emerged as a bright spot in June. The manager e-commerce sales index was 51.61, up 0.64 percentage points month-on-month; the merchant e-commerce sales index was 50.49, up 0.35 percentage points. Both indices remain above the boom-or-bust line and show an upward trend. 22.58% of specialty markets reported increased e-commerce sales, up 6.45 percentage points from May; 9.79% of merchants reported increased e-commerce sales, up 8.42 percentage points.
This trend indicates that textile and apparel specialty markets are accelerating online-offline integration. For buyers, this means traditional wholesale markets are no longer the only option; online price comparison and purchasing will become more common. For merchants, online operational capability is becoming a key variable for survival and competition.
Confidence Outlook: Optimistic for July, but Divergence May Persist
Forecast indices show strong confidence among both managers and merchants for July 2026. The manager next-period sentiment index was 50.32, down 2.91 percentage points from May but still above the threshold; the next-period operating environment index was 50.97. On the merchant side, the next-period sentiment index was 50.84, up 0.70 percentage points month-on-month; the next-period operating environment index was also 50.84, up 0.77 percentage points.
All four forecast indices are above 50, indicating that industry participants generally expect continued improvement in July. However, whether this optimism translates into actual performance depends on the sustainability of end-consumer demand and cost control capabilities. If the 'volume up, price down' situation persists, merchant profit recovery will remain slow.