In June, the textile and apparel professional markets presented two diverging trajectories. The manager sentiment index rose to 49.78, up 0.43 points from the previous month, while the merchant sentiment index edged above the 50-point threshold to 50.07. However, a closer look at the sub-indices reveals that both the profit and average selling price indices remained below 50, indicating that merchants have not yet escaped the low-profit zone.
Management Side: Foot Traffic and Logistics Recover, But Total Sales Flat
From the manager sub-indices, logistics shipment volume, customer traffic, and store opening rates all saw month-on-month improvements. The logistics index rose 0.64 points to 49.03, the customer traffic index also increased 0.64 points to 49.03, and the store opening rate index climbed 0.32 points to 49.35. These figures suggest that foot traffic and market activity are recovering, and vacancy rates are declining.
However, the key indicator—total sales index—remained unchanged at 49.03, indicating no significant expansion in overall transaction volume. The rent index inched up to 50.65, suggesting rents have stabilized at a low level, easing pressure on landlords. The e-commerce sales index reached 51.61, up 0.64 points from the previous month, making it the best-performing sub-index on the management side.
These signals point to a clear judgment: the physical spaces of professional markets are regaining vitality, but the conversion efficiency of visitor traffic into transactions has yet to match the pace of recovery. For buyers, this means more options are available, but price competition remains intense.
Merchant Side: Sales Rebound but Profits Squeezed, Cost Pressure Emerges
The merchant-side data is more telling. The sales volume index rebounded to 50.14, up 1.03 points from the previous month, making it one of the few sub-indices to cross the 50-point threshold. But the average selling price index fell 0.22 points to 49.30, and the profit index, despite rising 0.89 points, remained at 49.86.
Sales are up, but prices are not—profit margins are being compressed further. The comprehensive cost index declined 0.19 points to 50.63. It is important to note that a reading above 50 indicates decreasing cost pressure, so a decline means cost pressure is rising at the margin. The inventory index rose 0.21 points to 50.00, indicating a slight easing of inventory pressure.
More concerning is that in June, 18.18% of merchants reported a decline in total sales volume, an increase of 7.22 percentage points from the previous month; 19.58% reported a decline in profits, up 8.62 percentage points; and 18.88% reported a decline in selling prices, up 12.03 percentage points. These three declining ratios are expanding simultaneously, indicating that the difficulties facing merchants are spreading rather than narrowing.
E-commerce: The Only Certain Growth Channel
Both manager and merchant e-commerce sales indices remained in expansion territory. The manager e-commerce index was 51.61, and the merchant index was 50.49, with month-on-month increases of 0.64 and 0.35 points, respectively. In June, 22.58% of professional markets reported an increase in e-commerce sales, and 9.79% of merchants reported the same, with both proportions rising significantly from the previous month.
This suggests that the online transformation of traditional wholesale markets is accelerating. E-commerce is no longer a supplementary channel but a source of incremental growth. For small and medium-sized merchants that rely on offline foot traffic, the ability to integrate into online distribution systems is becoming a key variable for survival in the next phase.
Forward-Looking Divergence: Managers Cautious, Merchants Optimistic
The forward-looking indicators show an interesting divergence. Managers' forecast for July stood at 50.32, down 2.91 points from the previous month; their business environment forecast was 50.97, down 1.93 points. In contrast, merchants' forecast for July was 50.84, up 0.70 points, and their business environment forecast was also 50.84, up 0.77 points.
Managers are more cautious, while merchants are more optimistic. This divergence may stem from different perceptions of market momentum—managers see rents and store opening rates stabilizing but lack growth drivers; merchants see sales volume recovering and inventory improving, and harbor expectations for the peak season.