In the second week of July 2026, the textile raw material market experienced a rare 'fire and ice' scenario. PTA surged over 2% weekly, while acrylonitrile plunged more than 4%, highlighting clear capital and demand divergence within the chemical fiber sector. The overall average weekly decline of 0.38% suggests that the market has not warmed up due to individual raw material gains, but rather signals weakened downstream purchasing willingness.
Upstream divergence: PTA strength vs. polyester yarn weakness
PTA rose from 5,780 yuan/ton to 5,910 yuan/ton, up 2.25% weekly, with a year-on-year increase of 21.80%. This rally was mainly supported by high crude oil prices and tight PX supply. However, PTA's strength failed to effectively transmit to downstream polyester filament yarns. Polyester FDY fell 1.68% weekly, DTY dropped 1.28%, and POY declined 0.77%. This means polyester mills' profit margins are being squeezed—raw material prices rise while end-use fabric markets struggle to raise prices, leading weaving mills to adopt a just-in-time purchasing strategy rather than stockpiling.
Polyester staple fiber, as an intermediate product, rose 0.95% weekly, relatively stable, benefiting from rigid demand in nonwovens and filling materials. But its year-on-year gain of 9.43% still lags behind PTA's 21.80%, indicating limited cost pass-through capability.
Acrylonitrile and cotton lead declines: demand pressure spreads across the chain
The biggest weekly loser was acrylonitrile, down 4.20% from 9,533 yuan/ton to 9,133 yuan/ton, with year-on-year growth narrowing to 15.61%. Acrylonitrile's downstream mainly includes acrylic fiber, ABS resin, and carbon fiber. Recently, acrylic yarn market orders have been light, coupled with increased supply after some plant maintenance ended, leading to a rapid price correction. This decline is approaching the cost line; further drops may trigger production cuts by some factories.
Cotton fell 0.92% weekly to 17,706 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 16.48%. The price retreat was mainly due to expectations of a global cotton production increase in the new season and high inventory levels among domestic textile enterprises. Although cotton yarn 32S and 21S edged up 0.61% and 0.28% respectively, the increases were far smaller than PTA's, reflecting the 'follow-up but not follow-down' characteristic of the cotton textile chain—spinning mills passively raise prices under cost pressure, but actual transactions often include concessions.
Nylon and spandex: stability with underlying concerns
Nylon series products all fell this week, with FDY, DTY, and POY declining between 0.31% and 0.92%. The main reason was the loosening of caprolactam prices, coupled with downstream nylon filament weaving operating rates around 70%, with new orders mainly consisting of short-term contracts. Spandex prices remained flat for multiple weeks at 29,666 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.09%, but the high-level consolidation indicates a stalemate—factory inventories are manageable, but buyers show obvious resistance to high prices.
Viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn continued to stabilize at 14,200 yuan/ton and 17,925 yuan/ton respectively. These products have poor liquidity and lag behind chemical fibers in price changes, currently in a 'quoted but not traded' state. Raw silk fell 0.07% weekly to 425,700 yuan/ton, already down 10.07% year-on-year, the only product with a year-on-year decline, reflecting slow recovery in silk export orders.
Industry impact: weaving sector's 'hard to get orders, thin profits' pattern unchanged
From a regional industrial cluster perspective, weaving operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang (Shengze, Changxing, Xiaoshan) remain around 75%, but grey fabric inventories are generally 25-30 days, higher than the same period in previous years. Increased raw material price volatility has made traders and weaving mills more cautious in procurement decisions, typically operating on a 7-10 day short cycle. The Keqiao Light Textile City fabric transaction index edged down in early July, confirming a slowdown in ordering by end-use apparel brands.
For foreign trade companies, the combination of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and high ocean freight costs further squeezes profit margins on export orders. For example, although domestic polyester FDY prices are up 14.98% year-on-year, export FOB quotations have only increased 8%-10%, with overseas buyers' limited acceptance of price hikes.