Textile Raw Material Market Shifts on July 10: Cotton, Polyester Staple, and PTA Decline Amid Cost and Demand Pressures

On July 10, the textile raw material market posted a noteworthy set of data: cotton fell 0.98% in a single day, while polyester staple fiber and PTA dropped 0.82% and 0.79% respectively. Against a backdrop of flat prices for most products, the synchronized decline of these three varieties signals dual pressure from both the cost side and demand side. For midstream and downstream buyers and mills in the textile supply chain, this is not just a price signal; it may mark the starting point of a new round of inventory adjustment.

Event Background

According to publicly available industry data, the July 10 price change list for textile bulk commodities showed three products declining, all from the upstream raw material segment. Cotton fell from 17,881.83 yuan/ton to 17,706.00 yuan/ton, polyester staple fiber dropped from 7,392.90 yuan/ton to 7,332.23 yuan/ton, and PTA decreased from 5,957.84 yuan/ton to 5,910.50 yuan/ton. Although the declines were all within 1%, considering that these varieties had previously posted year-on-year gains of over 9% (cotton +16.48%, polyester staple +9.43%, PTA +21.80%), the single-day pullback may indicate that the earlier upward momentum is weakening.

Meanwhile, 14 other products—including raw silk, acrylonitrile, cotton yarn 21S, cotton yarn 32S, polyester yarn, viscose staple fiber, spandex, rayon yarn, polyester POY, polyester DTY, polyester FDY, nylon DTY, nylon FDY, and nylon POY—saw no price changes. This pattern of 'mostly flat, a few declining' reflects a market in wait-and-see mode.

Industry Impact

PTA, as the core raw material for the polyester chain, directly influences the cost of polyester staple fiber and polyester filament yarn. The 0.79% drop in PTA, coupled with the 0.82% decline in polyester staple fiber, indicates that cost transmission mechanisms are active. For polyester weaving mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, a slight easing of raw material costs could temporarily relieve margin pressure. However, if prices continue to fall, downstream buyers may adopt a 'wait for lower prices' attitude, further suppressing order volumes.

The decline in cotton is more noteworthy. Cotton prices had been rising steadily since 2025, with a year-on-year increase of over 16%. This pullback, though modest, may reflect weakening demand from end-use apparel sectors. Mills in cotton textile clusters such as Shandong and Henan report slowing growth in high-count yarn orders, with some weaving factories beginning to reduce raw material inventories. While cotton yarn 21S and 32S prices remain stable, a continued decline in cotton could significantly increase the downside risk for yarn prices.

Spandex, with a year-on-year increase of 21.09%, is the strongest gainer on the list. This is partly due to resilient demand from sportswear and partly supported by the cost of its raw material, BDO (1,4-butanediol). However, spandex prices have remained flat for several consecutive days, suggesting that downstream buyers are resistant to high prices and that market negotiations are intensifying.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Cotton and polyester staple fiber have shown synchronized pullbacks. Buyers should postpone large-scale replenishment and observe price trends over the next week to determine if a downward channel is forming. - PTA price fluctuations directly affect polyester products. Consider shortening procurement cycles and adopting a 'small batches, high frequency' strategy to reduce inventory risk. - Although cotton yarn prices are stable, upstream cotton prices have softened. It is advisable to negotiate floating price clauses with suppliers to avoid inventory depreciation if prices fall further.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - During periods of raw material price volatility, export quotations should include price adjustment mechanisms to prevent order losses from changing raw material costs. - Monitor the interplay between the renminbi exchange rate and raw material prices. If raw material prices fall while the renminbi appreciates, export competitiveness could be squeezed on both fronts. - Consider using futures instruments (e.g., PTA and cotton yarn futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange) for hedging, locking in future procurement costs to offset price fluctuation risks.